Whatever the truth about global warming, there is no doubt that the climate-change debate is hotting up. Scientists may still insist human activity is driving up global temperatures, but opinion polls reveal growing public scepticism about the evidence. A survey published last week suggests that almost one in three people in Britain now thinks the problem has been exaggerated - compared to one in five a year ago.
Some blame the scepticism on the bitterly cold weather still sweeping across the northern hemisphere, which seems hard to square with a warming planet. Others point the finger at the controversy surrounding leaked e-mails between leading climate scientists, which revealed shoddy research practices and a dismissive attitude towards sceptics.
Yet public scepticism was already on the rise before the "Climategate" debacle hit the headlines. Last October, a report by the Pew Research Centre in the US showed that just 57 per cent of those polled believed there was compelling evidence of global warming, down from 71 per cent in April 2008.
To combat such scepticism, scientists need to boost confidence in their often scary prognostications. And over the coming months, they will be attempting to do just this with a new generation of computer models that simulate the Earth's climate in unprecedented detail.
Based on millions of lines of computer code, these models attempt to capture the interactions of the land, sea and air of our entire planet, right down to the effect of dust in the air and plants on the ground.
One such simulation, now being put through its paces at the British Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter, even includes the seasonal change in foliage for different types of vegetation.
Doing all this demands mind-boggling amounts of computing power. Among the machines being roped in by scientists in the US is the world's fastest supercomputer, the Jaguar Cray XT5 at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility in Tennessee, capable of more than a million billion calculations a second.
The hope is that the increased realism will result in more reliable predictions of how the Earth will respond to the increasing atmospheric pollution in the form of greenhouse gases. Certainly researchers are in no doubt about the dangers of pushing simplistic models too far - not least because sceptics won't let them forget one egregious case dating back to the early days of climate models.
In 1971, two scientists at Nasa's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), in New York, published a pioneering study of a key issue in climate research: the role of dust and smoke on global warming. Produced by both natural and man-made sources from volcanoes to power stations, these so-called aerosols end up in the atmosphere, but their climatic effects are complex. In some cases, they can reflect sunlight back into space, combating the warming effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2.
To find out which wins, Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen Schneider created a simple computer model which included both greenhouse gas and aerosol effects. They found that if enough aerosols were released over the next 50 years, the cooling effect of aerosols might overcome greenhouse gas warming - and possibly trigger a new ice age.
Despite pointing out that aerosol levels may never reach such high levels, the authors found their research fuelling a media frenzy over an impending ice age. The fact that global temperatures soon headed in the opposite direction is now often used by sceptics as evidence that climate scientists do not know what they are doing.
Yet even at the time, the GISS model was recognised as just a first stab at understanding the future climate. It used questionable figures for both aerosol production and global warming effects, and failed to capture the spread of sources of both across the planet. Today's climate simulations benefit from 40 more years of research - plus much more computing power.
Around the world, teams of climate scientists are now working to debug their latest models, checking their success by seeing how well they reproduce the climate of the past. They will then be ready to tackle the big questions: just how much will the Earth warm up? And what will be the consequences for us all?
The fact that the latest generation of models are so much more sophisticated suggests that they should be much better placed to provide clear answers. But paradoxically, they may end up muddying the debate. That's because when it comes to resolving doubt, more sophistication is not always better. For a start, it is becoming clear that getting the details wrong can be as problematic as messing up on the big stuff. The current issue of the journal Nature reports how researchers testing the Hadley Centre's latest model were caught out by failing to include enough vegetation in arid areas. When the virtual computer-generated winds blew, they whipped up vast amounts of dust - which in turn fertilised large areas of the oceans, causing outbreaks of climate-changing phytoplankton.
Then there is the issue of realism. Every extra detail added to a climate model may make it more realistic, but at the cost of an extra source of uncertainty. For example, a climate model which includes, say, the effect of foliage may well produce a more reliable figure than simpler models for the warming of our planet. But there are inevitable uncertainties about the foliage effect - and these will boost the uncertainties surrounding the final result, as uncertainties always tot up.
In short, all the extra sophistication of the new models may end up giving us a more realistic view of the future climate - but one that is also more vague. Predictions of future global temperatures may be more reliable, but also span a bigger range of values.
And that could spell trouble for scientists hoping to boost confidence in their predictions. They may be comfortable with the dictum attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes that "It is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong". But whether the public and politicians will be impressed remains to be seen.
Robert Matthews is Visiting Reader in Science at Aston University, Birmingham, England.
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
Winner: Shafaf, Sam Hitchcott (jockey), Ahmed Al Mehairbi (trainer)
5,30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Noof KB, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed (TB) Dh380,000 1,400m
Winner: Taamol, Jim Crowley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Group One (PA) Dh2,500,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Listed (PA) Dh230,000 1,600m
Winner: Ihtesham, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Mekhbat, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel
Manchester United v Club America
When: Thursday, 9pm Arizona time (Friday UAE, 8am)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m
Winner: Arjan, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Jap Nazaa, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi.
6pm: Al Ruwais Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 1,200m
Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinal.
6.30pm: Shadwell Gold Cup Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Sanad, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
7pm: Shadwell Farm Stallions Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Canal, Harry Bentley, Satish Seemar.
Recipe
Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo
Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes
Cooking time: 5 minutes
Serves 4
Ingredients
180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
Method
▶ Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.
▶ Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.
▶ Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking, remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.
▶ Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.
Spare
Profile
Company name: Spare
Started: March 2018
Co-founders: Dalal Alrayes and Saurabh Shah
Based: UAE
Sector: FinTech
Investment: Own savings. Going for first round of fund-raising in March 2019
Uefa Nations League: How it works
The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.
The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.
Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.
MATCH INFO
England 19 (Try: Tuilagi; Cons: Farrell; Pens: Ford (4)
New Zealand 7 (Try: Savea; Con: Mo'unga)
Results:
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) | US$175,000 2,410m | Winner: Bin Battuta, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer)
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (Dirt) | $100,000 | 1,400m | Winner: Al Hayette, Fabrice Veron, Ismail Mohammed
7.40pm: Handicap (T) | $145,000 | 1,000m | Winner: Faatinah, Jim Crowley, David Hayes
8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) | $200,000 | 1,200m | Winner: Raven’s Corner, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) | $200,000 | 1,800m | Winner: Dream Castle, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor
9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 | 1,400m | Winner: Another Batt, Connor Beasley, George Scott
Duterte Harry: Fire and Fury in the Philippines
Jonathan Miller, Scribe Publications
The Bio
Favourite Emirati dish: I have so many because it has a lot of herbs and vegetables. Harees (oats with chicken) is one of them
Favourite place to go to: Dubai Mall because it has lots of sports shops.
Her motivation: My performance because I know that whatever I do, if I put the effort in, I’ll get results
During her free time: I like to drink coffee - a latte no sugar and no flavours. I do not like cold drinks
Pet peeve: That with every meal they give you a fries and Pepsi. That is so unhealthy
Advice to anyone who wants to be an ironman: Go for the goal. If you are consistent, you will get there. With the first one, it might not be what they want but they should start and just do it
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
SCORES
Yorkshire Vikings 144-1 in 12.5 overs
(Tom Kohler 72 not out, Harry Broook 42 not out)
bt Hobart Hurricanes 140-7 in 20 overs
(Caleb Jewell 38, Sean Willis 35, Karl Carver 2-29, Josh Shaw 2-39)
Essentials
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct from the UAE to Los Angeles, from Dh4,975 return, including taxes. The flight time is 16 hours. Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Aeromexico and Southwest all fly direct from Los Angeles to San Jose del Cabo from Dh1,243 return, including taxes. The flight time is two-and-a-half hours.
The trip
Lindblad Expeditions National Geographic’s eight-day Whales Wilderness itinerary costs from US$6,190 (Dh22,736) per person, twin share, including meals, accommodation and excursions, with departures in March and April 2018.
Q&A with Dash Berlin
Welcome back. What was it like to return to RAK and to play for fans out here again?
It’s an amazing feeling to be back in the passionate UAE again. Seeing the fans having a great time that is what it’s all about.
You're currently touring the globe as part of your Legends of the Feels Tour. How important is it to you to include the Middle East in the schedule?
The tour is doing really well and is extensive and intensive at the same time travelling all over the globe. My Middle Eastern fans are very dear to me, it’s good to be back.
You mix tracks that people know and love, but you also have a visually impressive set too (graphics etc). Is that the secret recipe to Dash Berlin's live gigs?
People enjoying the combination of the music and visuals are the key factor in the success of the Legends Of The Feel tour 2018.
Have you had some time to explore Ras al Khaimah too? If so, what have you been up to?
Coming fresh out of Las Vegas where I continue my 7th annual year DJ residency at Marquee, I decided it was a perfect moment to catch some sun rays and enjoy the warm hospitality of Bab Al Bahr.
Grand slam winners since July 2003
Who has won major titles since Wimbledon 2003 when Roger Federer won his first grand slam
Roger Federer 19 (8 Wimbledon, 5 Australian Open, 5 US Open, 1 French Open)
Rafael Nadal 16 (10 French Open, 3 US Open, 2 Wimbledon, 1 Australian Open)
Novak Djokovic 12 (6 Australian Open, 3 Wimbledon, 2 US Open, 1 French Open)
Andy Murray 3 (2 Wimbledon, 1 US Open)
Stan Wawrinka 3 (1 Australian Open, 1 French Open, 1 US Open)
Andy Roddick 1 (1 US Open)
Gaston Gaudio 1 (1 French Open)
Marat Safin 1 (1 Australian Open)
Juan Martin del Potro 1 (1 US Open)
Marin Cilic 1 (1 US Open)
The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
Princeton
Generation Start-up: Awok company profile
Started: 2013
Founder: Ulugbek Yuldashev
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 600 plus
Stage: still in talks with VCs
Principal Investors: self-financed by founder
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Rocketman
Director: Dexter Fletcher
Starring: Taron Egerton, Richard Madden, Jamie Bell
Rating: 3 out of 5 stars
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
LIGUE 1 FIXTURES
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday
Nice v Angers (9pm)
Lille v Monaco (10.45pm)
Saturday
Montpellier v Paris Saint-Germain (7pm)
Bordeaux v Guingamp (10pm)
Caen v Amiens (10pm)
Lyon v Dijon (10pm)
Metz v Troyes (10pm)
Sunday
Saint-Etienne v Rennes (5pm)
Strasbourg v Nantes (7pm)
Marseille v Toulouse (11pm)
if you go
The flights
Emirates have direct flights from Dubai to Glasgow from Dh3,115. Alternatively, if you want to see a bit of Edinburgh first, then you can fly there direct with Etihad from Abu Dhabi.
The hotel
Located in the heart of Mackintosh's Glasgow, the Dakota Deluxe is perhaps the most refined hotel anywhere in the city. Doubles from Dh850
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Events and tours
There are various Mackintosh specific events throughout 2018 – for more details and to see a map of his surviving designs see glasgowmackintosh.com
For walking tours focussing on the Glasgow Style, see the website of the Glasgow School of Art.
More information
For ideas on planning a trip to Scotland, visit www.visitscotland.com
About Okadoc
Date started: Okadoc, 2018
Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Healthcare
Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth
Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February
Investors: Undisclosed
THE BIO
BIO:
Born in RAK on December 9, 1983
Lives in Abu Dhabi with her family
She graduated from Emirates University in 2007 with a BA in architectural engineering
Her motto in life is her grandmother’s saying “That who created you will not have you get lost”
Her ambition is to spread UAE’s culture of love and acceptance through serving coffee, the country’s traditional coffee in particular.
You Were Never Really Here
Director: Lynne Ramsay
Starring: Joaquim Phoenix, Ekaterina Samsonov
Four stars
Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
Abu Dhabi Grand Slam Jiu-Jitsu World Tour Calendar 2018/19
July 29: OTA Gymnasium in Tokyo, Japan
Sep 22-23: LA Convention Centre in Los Angeles, US
Nov 16-18: Carioca Arena Centre in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Feb 7-9: Mubadala Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
Mar 9-10: Copper Box Arena in London, UK
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now