Bayesian analysis is named after an 18th-century English mathematician, Thomas Bayes, who investigated the problem of estimating the chances of a hypothesis being true, given a certain amount of observational evidence.
For example, if you suspect a coin is biased, tossing it a couple of times will not reveal any bias with much reliability. But as the number of tosses is increased, the weight of evidence either confirming or refuting your suspicions starts to accumulate.
Just how compelling the evidence is can by calculated using a mathematical recipe known as Bayes's Theorem. However, this theorem shows that evidence alone is not enough to resolve such questions: the inherent plausibility of the hypothesis under test also needs to be taken into account ... and - in line with common sense - implausible hypotheses need far more evidence to back them up before they can be regarded as compelling.
* Robert Matthews
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
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The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
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Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
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The five pillars of Islam