Jude Law, right, as Alan Krumwiede in the thriller Contagion. Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures
Jude Law, right, as Alan Krumwiede in the thriller Contagion. Courtesy Warner Bros. Pictures

Next pandemic is 'not a matter of if'



"Don't talk to anyone. Don't touch anyone. Stay away from other people," advises the tagline to the latest apocalyptic disaster flick, Contagion.

The blockbuster, made by Abu Dhabi production house Image Nation, presents a nightmarish, if familiar, scenario in which a killer disease sweeps through the global population, laying waste to tens of millions of lives while scientists race against time to create a vaccine.

What marks Contagion out from comparable movies - such as Andromeda Strain or Outbreak - is its rigid attention to scientific accuracy. Medical experts were consulted to provide authentic evidence on virus mutation and dispersion, while the film's protagonists work for real-life agencies, such as the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

And the premise of Contagion's plot is drawn from actual outbreaks. These include the Sars epidemic, the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome that started in Hong Kong in 2003, before spreading to 37 countries and eventually killing almost 1,000 people, and the H1N1 virus, more commonly known as swine flu, that claimed about 20,000 lives in 2009.

With the threat of global pandemics being one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century, it's no surprise that the issue was the subject of a number of presentations at the recent Abu Dhabi Medical Congress at Adnec.

One of the keynote speakers was Dr Steven Gordon who, as chairman of the department of infectious diseases at the Cleveland Clinic - the healthcare provider that operates the Sheikh Khalifa Hospital in Abu Dhabi, as well as constructing its own new facility on Sowwah Island - is a respected authority in this area of research.

Dr Gordon contends that Contagion's plot is by no means far-fetched fantasy, but instead is an accurate representation of the worst-case scenario.

"More and more people are living in congested cities, people are flying all over the world for business and holidays and then you have refugee crises - all of these are increasing the possibility of a pandemic happening," he says.

"And you have precedents from history. Look at the bubonic plague, which wiped out a third of the world's population in the Middle Ages, or the influenza pandemic after World War One, which killed about 50 million people."

Not that he wants us to panic. "We have moved on from 1919," he adds, "and although they are not foolproof, there are systems in place to make sure it doesn't get to this level again."

While the WHO may coordinate the fight against virus propagation from its six worldwide offices, Dr Gordon says the real foot soldiers in the battle are hospital doctors and general practitioners.

"It's really the clinicians who are tasked with detecting unusual clusters of illness first. So, for example, there was an outbreak of a disease called the West Nile virus in 2009 in Texas, which was picked up by clinicians looking at patients and saying: 'Wow, I don't know what this is, but this is unusual'.

"The systems we have at the moment for detection involve surveying sick people who arrive in hospitals and then lab results. If we see spikes in antibiotic use, or higher death rates in certain areas, this could be a signal that an outbreak is imminent.

"In my department, it's really important we have accurate baseline data [from the hospitals] and then we analyse it correctly. Even if it's just background noise it can trigger investigations and this might allow time to intervene and to prevent morbidity."

Nevertheless, Dr Gordon claims that surveillance and detection can go only so far in preventing the spread of diseases, as other factors play a part.

"If we accept that pandemics are an inevitability of modern life, the question then arises how we're going to limit them. For example, we know the best prevention for influenza is a flu shot, but in the US just a fraction of the population actually get them. Of the 300 million population of the US, [fewer than] 50 to 60 million get their flu shots.

"Although I don't know the exact percentage of the population of the UAE who get [flu shots] I imagine it's a lot less."

But the best medical system can take a dangerously long time to spot a problem, let alone to react to it.

"Take the 2009 pandemic flu ... the first case in the United States was identified in June in San Diego, but going back there were cases in Mexico that occurred in February, but the data wasn't reported.

"The problem is that it takes several months of research to get a vaccine in production, and [in the case of H1N1 virus] by the time the vaccine was readily available, the peak of the epidemic had already passed. Had we known about this in February, that may have allowed us to save a lot of lives."

Despite all the medicines, equipment and know-how available, "in the US, we still had about 12,000 people dying of pandemic flu in 2009".

On top of this, respiratory viruses are not the only threat to the global population. The recent E.coli food-poisoning outbreak in Europe - traced to a batch of contaminated bean sprouts Germany - sickened thousands and killed at least 50, while bioterrorism, such as the 2001 anthrax attacks in the US, which killed five people, and the sarin gas attack on the Toyko underground in 1995, which claimed 13 lives, remains another menace.

But perhaps the most pressing concern to medical practitioners is hospital superbugs - germs that have genetically mutated to form resistance to antibiotics - which are now the fourth-highest cause of death in the western world. Recent scares include New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase, or NDM-1, which was first spotted in an Indian hospital three years ago, and has since spread to the country's general population.

Another speaker at the Abu Dhabi Medical Congress was Peter Martensson, president of Bactiguard AB, a Swedish firm that markets a patented galvanising technology to coat catheters, syringes and other hypodermic equipment. He rates the chance of a contagious superbug from within a medical facility spreading to the outside population as highly probable.

"It's not a matter of if it happens, it's all a matter of how serious it is," he says. "The fact that so much antibiotics are being used in these hospitals, all it would take is one mutation and there could be something serious on the horizon. That's why it's important to keep our intake of antibiotics down to the minimum, unless in cases of emergency."

Dr Gordon agrees that the general public should play their part in disease control.

"One of my department's major functions is education of the population," he says. "Our primary goal is preparedness, in whether it's an influenza outbreak or something potentially new. But we all need to be vigilant. If you see a certain wild animal dying in great numbers, like crows, that could be the harbinger of the arrival of a new disease."

The main thing to consider, he says, is that today "we live in a global environment and none of us can be immune from what's happening on the other side of the globe. With people moving so freely around the world, what's going on in Korea, or China or Dubai can easily affect you, so make sure you're aware of the symptoms of these diseases."

And one way to do that, he says, is to go to the movies: "Although Contagion and films like it make for good entertainment, personally, I think they do some good as it does bring our line of work into the public consciousness."

On the other hand, what was that tagline again? Oh yes: "Don't talk to anyone. Don't touch anyone. Stay away from other people."

Maybe you should wait for the DVD.

The biog

Prefers vegetables and fish to meat and would choose salad over pizza

Walks daily as part of regular exercise routine 

France is her favourite country to visit

Has written books and manuals on women’s education, first aid and health for the family

Family: Husband, three sons and a daughter

Fathiya Nadhari's instructions to her children was to give back to the country

The children worked as young volunteers in social, education and health campaigns

Her motto is to never stop working for the country

Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode

Directors: Raj & DK

Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon

Rating: 4/5

Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale

Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma

When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre turbo

Power: 181hp

Torque: 230Nm

Transmission: 6-speed automatic

Starting price: Dh79,000

On sale: Now

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Singham Again

Director: Rohit Shetty

Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone

Rating: 3/5

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Rating: 2/5
 
PFA Premier League team of 2018-19

Allison (Liverpool)

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool)

Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)

Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City)

Andrew Robertson (Liverpool)

Paul Pogba (Manchester United)

Fernandinho (Manchester City)

Bernardo Silva (Manchester City)

Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)

Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

Sadio Mane (Liverpool)