Reality hits Obama's lofty plans

A year since seeking a new beginning in the Muslim world and from Afghanistan to Guantanamo Bay, the US president still has a long way to go.

When Barack Obama stood at the podium at Cairo University on June 4 2009 to "seek a new beginning" in the Muslim world the euphoria in the region was almost palpable. Overnight, an unpopular and inarticulate cowboy president who divided the world was replaced by a thoughtful and conciliatory commander-in-chief who shared the region's Islamic heritage. Mr Obama seemed to embody the America the world admires and envies: a country of boundless optimism and confidence, and one that reaches out to others.

The graceful and elegant address has since become his trademark style. In part a paean to the achievements of Islamic civilisation, he promised a better future and pledged to repair America's relationship with the Islamic world, one that had been badly damaged by his predecessor, George W Bush. Mr Obama quoted from the Quran four times in the 55-minute speech and said that doing unto others as we would have them do unto us was a truth that transcended race and religion.

"It's a belief that pulsed in the cradle of civilization, and that still beats in the heart of billions. It's a faith in other people, and it's what brought me here today." Since then he has experienced a hard reality check. There is growing scepticism about his ability to force the Israelis and Palestinians to strike a peace deal, Afghanistan remains on life support, Pakistan is more unstable than ever and Iran continues to be belligerent about its nuclear ambitions.

Mr Obama, however, still managed to win a Nobel peace prize, which is perhaps a sign of how high expectations are that he will solve the world's ills. This week he pledged to shape a new international order based on cooperation, diplomacy and engagement, which seems to be a shift away from the previous administration's unilateral policy. However, The New York Times reported that a covert programme to send US Special Operations troops to both friendly and hostile countries would be expanded.

The soldiers would be deployed in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Horn of Africa and would "build networks" that would "penetrate, disturb, defeat or destroy" al Qa'eda and "prepare the environment" for future attacks by US local forces, according to documents the newspaper said it had seen. Mr Obama had promised to tackle violent extremism, rebuild Afghanistan, invest $1.5 billion a year over five years in Pakistan, pull out of Iraq, close down Guantanamo Bay and prohibit the use of torture. How has he done?

This is a critical year for the country. America has a clear counter-insurgency strategy, but Afghanistan is still on life support. Mr Obama is sending an extra 30,000 US soldiers to bolster Nato and US forces in an attempt to seize back territory from the Taliban. A Nato offensive to take Marjah in rural Helmand from the insurgents had mixed success, and there are doubts about the Kandahar campaign this summer, a place in which the Taliban are even more entrenched. Many parts of the country are too violent to allow for any development.

On Pakistan, Mr Obama is in some respects more hawkish than Mr Bush. The secretive drones programme against militants in the tribal areas has expanded, and there have been 38 strikes so far this year, compared with 43 in Mr Bush's entire second term. The Pakistani Taliban are retaliating by hitting Pakistani cities with waves of suicide bombings, antagonising the population. "The situation is getting worse day by day and people are angry about it," said Shahid Mursaleen, a spokesman for Minhaj ul Quran, a Lahore-based international organisation that issued a comprehensive fatwa earlier this year condemning suicide bombings.

Mr Obama's strategy has been to draw down forces in Iraq while sending a surge to Afghanistan. But Iraq is in a fragile, transitional phase. The US military is pulling out its soldiers - 50,000 are expected to leave this summer - and handing over responsibility for nation-building projects to American diplomats and the Iraqi government. Al Qa'eda's hold has shrunk to Nineveh province and three of its leaders were killed in April, but there are worries militant groups will fill the vacuum left as a result of the government not being formed, even though the election was held in March. In addition, American soldiers may not be able to leave as soon as planned.

A government task force this year concluded that of the nearly 200 prisoners in detention in the infamous jail, 50 were too dangerous to release, but that prosecuting them would be too difficult. Mr Obama promised to try terrorism suspects in federal courts, rather than military tribunals, but he has faced huge opposition from Republicans and others. And some civil and human rights groups are disappointed in his record. "The delay in closing Guantanamo Bay is due in part to the difficulty of finding countries that will accept those detainees who have been cleared for release, the Obama administration's willingness to continue indefinitely detaining prisoners without charge or trial, and attempts in Congress to obstruct the transfer of detainees to US soil," said Jonathan Hafetz, a lawyer for the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) in New York.

Mr Obama promised to pursue a two-state solution with "patience and dedication", and the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have certainly put those virtues to the test. There was a major standoff between Mr Obama and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in March about Jewish settlements in Arab East Jerusalem. The once unshakeable relationship between the two countries slumped to its lowest point in 35 years.

But that has not translated into good news for Palestinians. The Israelis refuse to stop building settlements. The only breakthrough this year is that proximity talks between Israelis and Palestinians started three weeks ago, mediated by the US's special Middle East envoy, George Mitchell. A peace deal remains a distant dream. Arthur Neslen, author of In Your Eyes A Sandstorm, which will be published next year, said Palestinians are disappointed.

"I was living in Ramallah during Obama's primaries campaign and my local bakery made Obama pastries in the shape of an 'O'. They flew off the shelves. A friend in Ramallah says that no one would buy one if they did that today. 'Change', which was the buzzword of that time, has mutated into 'business as usual'." House demolitions in Jerusalem and the new rules for deporting West Bank "infiltrators" to Gaza have made Palestinians even more insecure about their future, he said, adding that the Americans could have curtailed the purchase of Israeli weapons and reached out to moderates in the Hamas movement. "I think the feeling for many today is that 'one camel left and another camel took its place', as the old Bedouin saying has it," he said, referring to the US presidents.

On Iran, Mr Obama admitted to a history of wrongdoing on both sides, but said it was time to "move forward". Without explicitly singling out Iran, he said preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East was important. However, Iran has worked hard to outmanoeuvre America concerning its nuclear ambitions. This month, just as Mr Obama was gaining support from Russia and China for new UN sanctions against Iran, the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, suddenly offered to ship thousands of pounds of nuclear fuel to Turkey, a move designed to show that the the nation harbours no plans to build weapons. The Obama administration is determined to get its sanctions resolution through the UN Security Council. Even if that succeeds, it is unclear how many countries will agree to impose further sanctions to isolate Iran.

Mr Obama said he will support democracy everywhere, adding that all people have the right to say how they are governed. The American journal Foreign Policy leaked details of a $4 billion economic package to Egypt, and it is unclear what, if any, incentives there are for that country's president, Hosni Mubarak, to loosen his grip on power and lift the emergency laws that govern Cairo and the rest of the nation. America still provides Egypt with $1.3 billion a year in military aid, and many reformers and critics say the money props up an unpopular regime.

This is a delicate matter in the Middle East, and Mr Obama was careful to say it was a subject we must approach "together". The president emphasised that Muslim women have the right to wear a headscarf and promised to work with American Muslims to make the giving of zakat, or charity, easier. But there has not been any change, said the ACLU's Mr Hafetz. "We are pleased the president has acknowledged that US anti-terrorism laws are having a negative impact on Muslims' ability to fulfill their zakat obligations. But the administration has not made any policy changes or supported legislative reform to blunt that negative impact."

Mr Obama said the US will partner with any Muslim-majority country to support literacy for girls, and help young women get employment through micro-financing. He also said there need not be a contradiction between "development and tradition" and singled out Dubai and Kuala Lumpur as examples of progress. Three American "science envoys" have been appointed, and they have visited a number of countries in the region since January to identify opportunities in advancing scientific knowledge in the Arab world. Entrepreneurial awards for women have also been announced.

"What he did was great, and it was positive that he was showing that not all Muslims and Arabs are bad, but we shouldn't wait for the president to change our problems. We should start on our own to support businesses and social development," said Dr Iman Bibars, a prominent Cairo-based women's activist who attended the Summit on Entrepreneurship in Washington in April, an event Mr Obama had promised would be held. "But I am happy because the ball is rolling and he has put his money where his mouth is." [e-mail]