Middle East ‘to drive global politics’

The Middle East will shape the future of the world and be a major driver of international politics due to regional conflicts, experts said at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate this week.

Aref Ali Nayed, Libyan ambassador to the UAE, speaks during a panel discussion on internal shifts in Arab Spring countries, at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate at Emirates Palace hotel last week. ChristShow more

ABU DHABI // Conflicts in the Middle East will be a driver of international politics, experts at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate said this week.

But they said that the region must set up a power-sharing arrangement to avoid creating more turmoil.

“Islamophobia in Europe is ignited because of what is happening in this region,” said Dr Mohammed bin Huwaidin, chairman of political science at UAE University. “It could spread across the world, but the UAE saw a power vacuum developing therefore it stood against such challenges and with others took the responsibility to fill that power gap.”

Regional conflicts, from Syria and Libya to Yemen, Iraq and Egypt, have plagued the region in recent years, causing millions of refugees to flee. These wars were drivers of regional and international politics, he said.

“We have four civil wars and a potential one in Egypt, Turkey, maybe Jordan, Algeria and Tunisia,” said Kenneth Pollack, senior fellow for foreign policy at the US-based Centre for Middle East Policy.

“There are a lot of fragile states and these are huge problems because they spread and are engines of instability. It makes it very clear that every country that is intervening, whether the US, Russia, Egypt or Saudi Arabia, is doing the wrong thing because they are making the civil wars worse and the problem with civil wars is they do not stay contained.”

Regional trends show that Arab transitions are far from over. “They are an unfinished business,” said Nicola De Santis, head of political affairs and security policy in Middle East and North Africa at Nato.

“North Africa is now a larger potential for conflict spillover to Europe and the US because what happened in the Arab public awakening is that people demanded better conditions of living. Drivers of change go back 30 years and these regimes were not able to provide for the people, so we could have new waves of revolutions in which [the violence and conflict in] Syria and Iraq would mean nothing in comparison to the implosion of Egypt for instance.”

The US’s rapprochement with Iran caused concern in the Arab world, especially in the Gulf. “This region has trusted the US too much and they have not got what they wanted from them,” Dr bin Huwaidin said. “The Americans make the mess and we are cleaning up the mess now. They need to stand by us and with us but we do not see that.”

Some said there was a positive future to be had in the Middle East. “One scenario is turning the corner,” said Frederick Kempe, president and chief executive of the Atlantic Council in the US. “The UAE is a good model but it has not yet been able to expand that model to its neighbours.”

Ultimately, a power-sharing arrangement will need to be set up.

“Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt and Iran need to go beyond the zero-sum game arrangements, the pursuit of superiority and the tension and rivalry they have now,” said Dr bin Huwaidin. “If not, then tensions will continue and we will reach a tipping point of security dilemma and collide in military conflict.”