Coronavirus outbreak: what we know so far and what comes next?

‘No scientist nor sage on the planet will tell you when the peak of this epidemic will occur.’

Chinese residents line up to get a free protective mask at a local pharmacy in Beijing, China. Getty Images

A member of a coronavirus prevention and control team communicates through walkie-talkie with a colleague inside a laboratory at the Ningxia Center for Diseases Prevention and Control in Yinchuan, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. Reuters

Medical workers in protective suits lift an isolated patient from an ambulance as the country is hit by an outbreak of the new coronavirus, in Chengdu, Sichuan province, China. Reuters

Employees work during the manufacturing of reusable protective masks at the Clever Co. factory in Toyohashi, Aichi Prefecture, Japan. Bloomberg

Medical workers hold a strike near Queen Mary Hospital to demand the government shut the city's border with China to reduce the spread of the coronavirus in Hong Kong, China. Getty Images

Medical workers hold a strike near Queen Mary Hospital to demand the government shut the city's border with China to reduce the spread of the coronavirus in Hong Kong, China. Getty Images

A woman wears a mask as a preventive measure against the coronavirus outbreak, in Bangkok, Thailand. Reuters

A security staff stands at the entrance of a primary school closed to prevent the spread of corona virus in Hanoi. AFP

A man wearing a protective facemask walks pass a policeman in Hanoi. AFP

Pedestrians wearing masks cross a street in Shibuya district, Tokyo, Japan. EPA

A medical worker takes the temperature of a woman in the reception of Queen Elizabeth Hospital, following the outbreak of the coronavirus, in Hong Kong, China. Reuters

South Korean young men wear masks to protect against the new coronavirus as they take part in a conscription examination for the national service in Seoul, South Korea. Reuters

A Buddhist monk wears a mask as a preventive measure against the coronavirus outbreak, in Bangkok, Thailand. Reuters

A nurse checks the temperature of a visitor as part of the coronavirus screening procedure at a hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Reuters

A nun gives protective facemasks to students outside a Catholic school in Bangkok. AFP

Investors look at a screen showing stock market movements at a securities company in Hangzhou in China's eastern Zhejiang province. Chinese stocks crashed on February 3 with some major shares quickly falling by the maximum daily limit as the country's investors got their first chance in more than a week to react to the spiralling coronavirus outbreak. AFP

The World Health Organisation declared the coronavirus outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern” last week, which means it is an “extraordinary event” that poses a risk to several countries.

It is only the sixth time that the organisation has used this term, suggesting a co-ordinated international response maybe needed to fight the disease.

In the UAE, health authorities confirmed five cases so far and urged the public not to spread rumours about the virus and follow updates only from official sources.

Officials also gave reassurances that precautionary measures were in place and there was no cause for panic.

But as new cases are reported each day globally, let's take a look at what we know about the virus so far, what may come next and how prepared are we if it were to ever become a global epidemic? The National explains.

How infectious is the nCov virus?

A study published last week in The New England Journal of Medicine found that every person who contracts the virus could infect two others.

This means it is more infectious than the 1918 influenza pandemic virus, which had an R-nought (R0) value – a measure of infectiousness – of 1.80 people compared to nCov’s rate of 2.2 people.

However, these are very early days in the development of the virus. Experts said the rate of infectiousness may not suggest doom, as much of what happens now depends on containment efforts.

China has locked down several cities, including Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, to prevent its spread.

To contain the virus, several airlines have cancelled flights to China and some countries have refused entry to foreign nationals with a travel history to the country.

What could happen next?

This is one of the big unknowns.

According to official figures, there are 17,238 confirmed infections across China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. Researchers, however, suspect there may be tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases.

A study by the University of Hong Kong in the British medical journal, The Lancet, estimated that 75,815 people had been infected in Greater Wuhan alone as of January 25.

That study looked into the epidemic doubling every 6.4 days, based on calculations about how infectious the virus is, meaning nine days later, the numbers now exceed 151,630 in Wuhan alone.

Adding to that, there are now cases in every Chinese territory, suggesting more localised epidemics could be developing.

“On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation,” said the study.

How deadly is it?

Of the 17,238 confirmed cases in China, 2,296 are said to be in a serious condition and 361 have died.

The numbers are suggestive of a fatality rate of around 2 per cent, which is much lower than nCov's coronavirus cousins, Sars and Mers, but significantly higher than seasonal influenza, which only kills around 0.10 per cent of the people it infects.

A number of studies have estimated fatalities among nCov confirmed patients in hospital to be much higher. A report by Hong Kong scientists, who studied early cases, suggest it can go up to 14 per cent.

However, they admitted it was difficult to assess the fatality rate at this time as most cases reported outside Wuhan have not been severe.

Therefore, “it would be reasonable to infer that there might be a large number of undetected relatively mild infections in Wuhan and that the infection fatality risk is below 1 per cent,” according to the study.

How long will the outbreak last?

That is another unknown.

Dr Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies programme said no “scientist nor sage on the planet that will tell you when the peak of this epidemic will occur.

“The peak will occur when the peak occurs,” he said.

Do UAE doctors think it will become a pandemic?

Opinions in the medical fraternity vary but largely the answer is a 'no'.

Dr Mahantesh Magadum, medical director at Burjeel Hospital in Sharjah, said the threat of a pandemic is overstated as it has only spread to 20 other countries as of today.

Of the countries that have reported cases, many have just one or two patients.

“I have my doubts if it’ll be of that magnitude,” he said.

Some said a widespread outbreak may be possible.

"It is taking the shape of a pandemic because it is spreading all over the world. We need to take precautions at this stage," said Dr Sanjiv Kumar Kakkar, paediatric specialist at Al Zahra hospital in Sharjah.

Dr Corina Weber, an internal medicine specialist at NMC Royal Medical Centre in Abu Dhabi, said the virus is worrying as it is a new strain, but the fact remains that it is mainly limited to China.

Preventive measures are in place to prevent new cases developing in the UAE.

“We are in a very safe country,” she said.

“The Department of Health is serious about it. We have had multiple briefings even before the virus hit our shores. We knew we had to trace a patient’s background and travels if he came to us,” she said.