Coronavirus: is Middle East set for Covid-19 surge in winter?

Scientists are uncertain whether the disease will follow patterns of more established viral infections

Palestinian medical staff in the Covid-19 section of Dura hospital in the occupied West Bank city of Dura near Hebron. EPA

A social worker shows a homeless child the proper way to use a face mask inside one of the mobile units run by the Egyptian authorities, in Abbasia district of the capital Cairo. AFP

Palestinian refugees swim in the sea, in Gaza City, Gaza Strip, amid the ongoing pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus. EPA

Relatives pray next to a coffin with the body of 54-year-old Palestinian Mohammad Sallem, who died after contracting Covid-19, during his funeral in the West Bank city of Hebron. EPA

Palestinian amputee children participate in a football training session, arranged by the Red Cross, after the easing of coronavirus restrictions, in Deir Al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. AFP

Palestinian amputee children participate in a football training session, arranged by the Red Cross, after easing of the coronavirus restrictions, in Deir Al Balah in the central Gaza Strip. AFP

A health worker takes a swab sample from a child who suffers from cancer for Covid-19 testing, at the Children's Hospital for Cancer Diseases in Basra, Iraq. Reuters

A child who suffers from cancer looks through the window with her family at the Children's Hospital for Cancer Diseases, amid the spread of the coronavirus, in Basra, Iraq. Reuters

Medical personnel wearing protection suits check a patient at the Ain Shams field hospital in Cairo, Egypt. The field hospital was established in mid-June to receive Covid-19 patients and has a capacity of 200 beds including 11 reserved for critical patients. EPA

Workers at a factory producing surgical masks, in Cairo, Egypt. EPA

People walk along a path amid the coronavirus outbreak, in Manama, Bahrain. Reuters

A Moroccan woman, wearing protective face mask, walks on a street in Tangiers' Old City, after the re-introduction of restriction measures to contain the coronavirus. AFP

Moroccan women, wearing face masks, walk on a street in Tangiers' Old City, after the announcement of lockdown measures in the northern port city to contain the coronavirus, weeks after easing nationwide restrictions. AFP

Lebanese artists greet the audience and sing during the reopening of the 'City Theatre' in Al Deena Theatre, Beirut, after being closed down beause of the coronavirus pandemic. EPA

A report highlighting the risk of a surge in Covid-19 deaths in the UK this winter has raised questions over whether the Middle East could experience the same.

A study by the Academy of Medical Sciences said Britain could suffer a second significant peak over January and February next year.

While the report’s authors cautioned this was still only a possibility, research has shown the virus does survive longer in colder conditions.

But owing to Covid-19’s relatively recent emergence, however, scientists remain unsure whether it will follow known patterns of more established viral infections.

“We’re all waiting to see how much of a seasonal component there is,” said Dr Andrew Freedman, a specialist in infectious diseases at Cardiff University in the UK.

“We do know that respiratory viruses spread much more readily in the winter months.

“Influenza tends to be a seasonal thing, but until we’ve a full year’s worth of coronavirus, we can’t really say.”

Flu season in the Northern Hemisphere can begin as early as October, according to the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

In the UAE, flu tends to peak between December and February, with authorities recommending people get vaccinated by October each year.

History has shown that infection rates of viral outbreaks do increase as the weather cools.

During the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, a second emergence in the autumn of that year caused more deaths than the original spring outbreak.

Similarly, a second H1N1 swine flu wave in 2009 proved more substantial than the original outbreak.

In a document published this month, the World Economic Forum said coronavirus cases had increased in Australia in recent weeks, where it is now winter.

Meanwhile, South Africa, another Southern Hemisphere country, is also currently experiencing a rise in coronavirus infections.

“With respect to the coronavirus, we do not have a confirmed seasonality,” said Dr Bharat Pankhania, a senior consultant on communicable disease control and senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter in the UK.

“However, if we think from first principles, we can work out that the ingredients for an increase in the number of cases in winter are all there.”

Dr Pankhania said patterns witnessed in the UK might not necessarily apply to the Middle East owing to differing human behaviours.

“In the Middle East, as it’s cooler [in winter], people will open up their windows and allow in more cooler air,” he said.

“If that’s the behaviour, the chances of an infection are slightly reduced.”

Studies indicate that coronavirus spreads most easily when temperatures average between 5°C and 11°C, and that infections fall as temperatures increase.

But some researchers do not believe significant seasonal effects are likely. Writing for an academic website called The Conversation last month, Dr Jeremy Rossman, an honorary senior lecturer in virology at the University of Kent in the UK, said scientists "really don't know to what extent" seasonal factors such as humidity, UV levels and the amount of time people spend indoors – which all impact on influenza transmission – affect the coronavirus.

“Even if seasonal factors affect Covid-19 transmission, the spread of a new virus through a population that has no immunity will overwhelm any influence of seasonal factors,” Dr Rossman wrote.

The UAE has reported more than 55,000 coronavirus cases and 335 deaths, according to government figures.

Fatalities have dropped significantly after peaking in late April and the first half of May. On Wednesday, the UAE recorded no new deaths, the first time this has happened since April 18.