GCC has a big stake in US-Iran relations

ABU DHABI // The GCC states should be involved in negotiations between Iran and the international community over the Islamic republic's nuclear intentions, an expert on Iranian affairs said during a session at the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research. "GCC should be made a full partner in talks," said Mahmoud Monshipouri, a political scientist at San Francisco State University. The five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany have been negotiating with Iran for years. No significant results have been achieved; Iran continues to enrich uranium. Iran's first nuclear power plant is expected to be operational in the first half of this year, according to Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister. The Gulf countries have expressed support for Iran's right to have a peaceful nuclear programme and, through diplomatic channels, have urged that a solution be found to the dispute between the US and Iran over Tehran's alleged nuclear arms programme. Dr Mohamed bin Huwaidin, a political science professor at the UAE University, said yesterday that the region's countries welcomed the idea of taking part in talks over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Representatives of four Gulf states - the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain - joined Egypt, Iraq and Jordan last month in a meeting of negotiating parties in New York to discuss regional security, including the Iranian issue. Bahrain and Qatar did not attend in protest at Iran's exclusion. The meeting was viewed by some as a step towards including Arab states in the negotiations. In his lecture, Dr Monshipouri said he was not sure how the incoming US administration of Barack Obama would handle the issue of Iran. However, he said, "it is evident that the policy of avoiding direct diplomacy with Iran adopted by the Bush administration has fallen by the wayside". Dr Monshipouri and other regional analysts argued that any improvement in US-Iranian relations could threaten the interest of GCC states. "The key thing for Iran is they want to be recognised as a regional power by the US," Dr Monshipouri said. "US-Iranian detente would sacrifice GCC interests. There is a fear that ? a grand bargain would marginalise the GCC states." He also said such a deal would undermine the UAE's position as a regional trade hub, since the economic sanctions on the Islamic republic would be lifted. It is believed this would have an impact on the trade balance between the two countries. In 2007, Emirati exports and re-exports to Iran amounted to more than Dh24.3 billion (US$6.57 bn), according to figures from the Federal Customs Authority. However, Dr Jamal al Suwaidi, of the UAE University, said the Gulf states were not worried about improvements of US-Iranian relations. "It's not possible for the US to abandon the Gulf," he said. "There is a lot of exaggeration, because the US interests in the Gulf are bigger than its interests in Iran. "Everyone's goal is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. If America makes some compromises in the process nobody will object as long as it doesn't harm our interests." Dr Monshipouri said Mr Obama could adopt a softer approach with Iran. One way to engage the Iranian leadership was through economic incentives. "No case is stronger than building economic ties with Iran" because of prevailing poverty, he said. He speculated that the Obama administration would adopt an "issue-by-issue" approach in dealing with Iran.