Turkey balances carrot and stick after PKK attack

The latest provocation by the PKK will test the Turkish leadership's ability to show prudent generosity to the Kurdish minority, particularly in the context of regional instability.

Turkish troops with air and artillery support crossed into Kurdish northern Iraq yesterday, in prompt retaliation for raids in the other direction that killed at least 24 Turkish soldiers and police and injured 18 more. The fighting will be hard on civilians on both sides of the border, but the bigger issue of how Turkey manages Kurdish militancy is vital to all Turks, and to many of their neighbours as well.

The raids were the work of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is known for such tactics. Turkey's President Abdullah Gul told reporters that if the PKK's "calculation is that they are making political gains with terrorist attacks, they're making a historic mistake". That depends on what he means by "political gains" - and on the government's response.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister since 2003, has to his credit worked to improve relations between the Turkish majority and Kurds, who make up roughly 18 per cent of Turkey's 79 million people. He has acknowledged historical mistreatment, eased limits on Kurdish-language broadcasts and on schooling, and made an official visit to Irbil, the capital of Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. These moves have angered some Turkish nationalists, who still seem to believe that homogeneity can be imposed on a people against their will, and Mr Erdogan has had to walk a fine line.

Early this month, the main Kurdish party in Turkey's parliament abandoned its boycott of legislative activity, so as to take part in talks on a new constitution, talks which could lead to further rights for minorities. But the PKK, intent on carving out an independent homeland, does not see cultural rights as "political gains".

So it is no coincidence that this flare-up comes just as those talks begin. A government response of repression, or a roll-back of minority liberties, would polarise Turkey, serving the PKK well.

There is also an international dimension here. Iran and Syria have their Kurdish minorities as well, and parties will attempt to stoke Kurdish violence in Turkey as a lever on its foreign policy toward Syria, in particular.

To minimise and marginalise PKK terrorism, then, Mr Erdogan and his government need to use military and intelligence tools against the PKK, but to approach Turkey's Kurdish population with respect and generosity, all the while keeping an eye on the borders. These are uneasy times in the neighbourhood.