What if the Syrian regime crumbled today? Did the government lose control - at least briefly - when at least four of the regime's top figures were killed in a bomb attack in Damascus in July? In my opinion, it probably did.
Those officials, including the dictator's brother-in-law Assef Shawkat, linked the regime's top echelons with the security apparatus in overseeing the daily repression. That chain was probably broken, for a brief period, before the embattled regime reasserted its control and the violence continued as usual.
But how would the regime's opponents know? They clearly lack the necessary tools even to immediately recognise a power vacuum, much less fill it. Even if the regime fell, the war would continue until people on both sides became aware of the vacuum. The rebels must keep this in mind.
If the rebels are to achieve palpable results, new strategies are needed. From interviews with activists, rebel fighters and regime's loyalists, there appear to be two critical areas where rebels must focus to break the stalemate.
First, strike the regime's backbone. The Assads increasingly rely on militia-like forces that carry out daily operations on the ground, with little supervision from the Damascus leadership. The Assads have undoubtedly signed off on the killing, but in the form of general directives, rather than tactical leadership. That is why day-to-day operations were hardly affected by the July bomb.
And that is why a political solution is so unlikely at present. The ground forces will keep on fighting as long as they believe they can win, which is a dynamic the regime recognises.
The state has disintegrated, in the sense that the top leadership is detached from the rank-and-file forces partly for practical reasons. Regime loyalists on the ground have often demanded that more force be used, and criticised Damascus for a "soft" approach.
Rank-and-file units are unfamiliar with the regime's strategic limitations, and are increasingly frustrated with its inability to crush the rebellion. Although most of these units are led by experienced officers, a significant number of regime fighters joined after the protests began 19 months ago. With the exception of the air force and elite units, such as the Republican Guard and the 4th Mechanised Brigade, the bulk of pro-government forces operate like unrestrained militias.
The war in Syria has morphed into localised battles of endurance, which often favours insurgents. In some cases, however, regime ground forces effectively act as irregular militias as well. That can be a strength as well as a weakness.
The regime's leaders still believe that they can win this conflict as long as the ground forces are resilient and able to fight a protracted civil war, which could last for several years.
If rank-and-file officers begin to feel that they are bearing the brunt of the fighting, they will recognise the limits of their power, and the importance of compromise to save their own skins.
The second area that rebels must work on is establishing political leadership with a strong presence on the ground. Contrary to popular belief, a unified political opposition is even more urgent than a unified command-and-control structure among the armed rebels. Many of the disagreements among anti-regime fighters are the result of rivalries at the political level - the most salient example is the distribution of arms according to political loyalties.
A unified on-the-ground resistance cannot be the prerequisite for assistance and weapons supplies.
A coherent political leadership, backed financially and politically by foreign states, is more urgent than ever. As the US magazine Foreign Policy reported on Tuesday, the US administration intends to launch a new Syrian opposition council during meetings in Qatar next week.
The present Syrian National Council has proved time and again that it cannot reform and become inclusive on its own. An international effort is needed to make that happen. Foreign countries, particularly those that wield influence because they supply arms and aid, can help to forge unity on the ground.
Political leadership must be connected to Syrians inside the country, working closely with activists and fighters, and begin to administer areas where the regime has little or no presence. When the opposition members inside Syria feel that they are sacrificing their lives, they naturally owe no allegiance to politicians living in hotels in foreign capitals.
Just as importantly, the presence of political leadership inside the country would begin to build a model to replace the regime. Assad opponents need to capitalise on the regime's weaknesses, instead of mirroring its behaviour. The dictator is trying to divide and rule; the opposition must unite and lead. He is alienating people by destroying neighbourhoods; the opposition must improve ties with ordinary Syrians, even those who do not support the revolution. Regime tactics work because opponents offer no coherent counterstrategy.
Rebels need effective weapons to be able to defend the areas where they operate. But even with better weapons, at best they can force the regime to negotiate, not cede power.
International diplomacy, personified by the envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, appears to be based on waiting until one side seeks negotiation. The rebels can force this to happen, but not with the current strategy.
hhassan@thenational.ae
On Twitter: @hhassan140
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The biog
Alwyn Stephen says much of his success is a result of taking an educated chance on business decisions.
His advice to anyone starting out in business is to have no fear as life is about taking on challenges.
“If you have the ambition and dream of something, follow that dream, be positive, determined and set goals.
"Nothing and no-one can stop you from succeeding with the right work application, and a little bit of luck along the way.”
Mr Stephen sells his luxury fragrances at selected perfumeries around the UAE, including the House of Niche Boutique in Al Seef.
He relaxes by spending time with his family at home, and enjoying his wife’s India cooking.
Company%20Profile
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Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Full name: Aisha Abdulqader Saeed
Age: 34
Emirate: Dubai
Favourite quote: "No one has ever become poor by giving"
The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
Jawan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAtlee%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Nayanthara%2C%20Vijay%20Sethupathi%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Six pitfalls to avoid when trading company stocks
Following fashion
Investing is cyclical, buying last year's winners often means holding this year's losers.
Losing your balance
You end up with too much exposure to an individual company or sector that has taken your fancy.
Being over active
If you chop and change your portfolio too often, dealing charges will eat up your gains.
Running your losers
Investors hate admitting mistakes and hold onto bad stocks hoping they will come good.
Selling in a panic
If you sell up when the market drops, you have locked yourself out of the recovery.
Timing the market
Even the best investor in the world cannot consistently call market movements.
The biog
DOB: March 13, 1987
Place of birth: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia but lived in Virginia in the US and raised in Lebanon
School: ACS in Lebanon
University: BSA in Graphic Design at the American University of Beirut
MSA in Design Entrepreneurship at the School of Visual Arts in New York City
Nationality: Lebanese
Status: Single
Favourite thing to do: I really enjoy cycling, I was a participant in Cycling for Gaza for the second time this year
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THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 258hp at 5,000-6,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm from 1,550-4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.4L/100km
Price, base: from D215,000 (Dh230,000 as tested)
On sale: now
FA Cup quarter-final draw
The matches will be played across the weekend of 21 and 22 March
Sheffield United v Arsenal
Newcastle v Manchester City
Norwich v Derby/Manchester United
Leicester City v Chelsea
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
if you go
The flights
Flydubai offers three daily direct flights to Sarajevo and, from June, a daily flight from Thessaloniki from Dubai. A return flight costs from Dhs1,905 including taxes.
The trip
The Travel Scientists are the organisers of the Balkan Ride and several other rallies around the world. The 2018 running of this particular adventure will take place from August 3-11, once again starting in Sarajevo and ending a week later in Thessaloniki. If you’re driving your own vehicle, then entry start from €880 (Dhs 3,900) per person including all accommodation along the route. Contact the Travel Scientists if you wish to hire one of their vehicles.
IPL 2018 FINAL
Sunrisers Hyderabad 178-6 (20 ovs)
Chennai Super Kings 181-2 (18.3 ovs)
Chennai win by eight wickets
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Match info
What: Fifa Club World Cup play-off
Who: Al Ain v Team Wellington
Where: Hazza bin Zayed Stadium, Al Ain
When: Wednesday, kick off 7.30pm
World%20Food%20Day%20
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Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
RESULTS
Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Brief scores:
Toss: India, opted to field
Australia 158-4 (17 ov)
Maxwell 46, Lynn 37; Kuldeep 2-24
India 169-7 (17 ov)
Dhawan 76, Karthik 30; Zampa 2-22
Result: Australia won by 4 runs by D/L method
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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