Will it be Cam Newton or Akili Smith? The risks NFL teams make in drafting quarterbacks

Ahead of the NFL draft, Gregg Patton explains the risks involved when drafting quarterbacks.

Cam Newton is the perfect example of when drafting a quarterback goes spectacularly well but there are more cases of top draft pick QBS that have failed to make the step up to the NFL. Mike McCarn / AShow more

Quarterbacks. They make you crazy.

NFL teams are so obsessed with finding the right men to lead their offences into the play-offs and fulfil their Super Bowl dreams that they often project greatness onto players where there is none.

Next Thursday, the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles will take quarterbacks Jared Goff of the University of California-Berkeley and Carson Wentz of North Dakota State with the first two picks in the draft, not necessarily in that order, and bank their futures on those decisions.

Last fall, neither Goff nor Wentz were even mentioned as a potential No 1 overall pick. But after the league’s talent-evaluating combine in February, and various private workouts, the pair’s stock began to rise.

With quarterbacks, of course, what scouts and general managers envision can be mesmerising. The QB is the single most important player on your roster. The man who makes up for your leaky defence and puts points on the board. The man who makes the right decisions in the final two minutes, and leads the game-winning drive.

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If you are right, and you pick Cam Newton No 1 in 2011, he gets your Carolina Panthers to the Super Bowl in five years. If you are wrong, and you pick JaMarcus Russell No 1 in 2007, he is gone from the league in three years and your Oakland Raiders are in shambles.

With quarterbacks, there may be a thin line between expert analysis and wishful thinking.

In 1999, the first three picks in the draft were quarterbacks.

The Cleveland Browns took Tim Couch first. The Philadelphia Eagles took Donovan McNabb second. The Cincinnati Bengals took Akili Smith third. Couch struggled through five seasons, and Smith was a forest fire. But under McNabb, the Eagles made the postseason eight times in 11 years and reached the Super Bowl in 2004.

For every Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, top overall picks who ease right into stardom, there is a befuddled David Carr, the Houston Texans’ No 1 in 2002, and a fragile Sam Bradford, the St. Louis Rams’ No 1 in 2010.

The irony with Bradford is that if he hadn’t been so often injured and inconsistent, and had lived up to expectations at some point, neither Los Angeles nor Philadelphia would have given up so much to trade themselves this spring into the No 1 and 2 spots, to gamble on quarterbacks again.

The Rams surrendered five high draft picks, including this year’s No 15 overall and their first-round pick next year, to the Tennessee Titans for the No 1. The Eagles sent five picks to the Cleveland Browns, including their No 8 pick this week and their first-rounder in 2017, for the No 2.

Bradford was supposed to be the saviour for the Rams in 2010. In his five seasons they never had a winning record, nor did Bradford rise above mediocrity. He was traded to Philadelphia a year ago, managed to start 14 games around a shoulder injury and a concussion, but couldn’t get the underachieving, 7-9 Eagles into the play-offs.

Now Bradford is just another journeyman, expected to tread water for a year or two in Philadelphia, until the new franchise saviour, Goff or Wentz, is ready to light it up.

The good news for the Rams and Eagles is that 11 quarterbacks have been drafted in the top two slots since 2003, and nine of them are still listed as starters.

But also consider, since 1999, only one quarterback drafted in the top two spots (Eli Manning, 2004) has ever won a Super Bowl.

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