The 2016 MLB season digs the long ball, but will it prove a winning formula?

Gregg Patton writes the deluge of home runs this season in baseball has lifted flagging offensive numbers, but is not necessarily a trend for sustainable team-building strategy.

Todd Frazier of the Chicago White Sox. Nam Y Huh / AP Photo

Early last month, on one overcast Sunday in Boston, the Toronto Blue Jays mustered just four hits against Red Sox pitchers.

Fortunately for the Jays, all were home runs, producing a 5-4 victory. Meanwhile, the Sox were held hitless until the eighth inning when Chris Young lofted another ball over the wall, meaning the two teams went to the ninth inning with a total of five hits between them – all long balls.

Certainly it was a strange day on the scorecard, but perhaps fitting for the 2016 season. Home runs are dominating the landscape.

It appears that hitters have found an antidote to the proliferation of pitchers throwing 95 miles-per-hour: get the ball in the air and hope it sails out of the park.

At the halfway point of the season, players are on pace to produce more home runs than any year in history except 2000, which was the height of the steroid era and its artificially inflated power numbers.

Forty-two players are currently on track to whack at least 30 home runs. That would be more than twice as many who hit 30 homers last year, and almost four times as many players who hit 30 in 2014.

No doubt the game is changing rapidly.

Just two years ago, MLB was suddenly awash in young relief pitchers used to throw sizzling fastballs over short appearances. Meanwhile, defensive infield shifts became an overnight fashion, confounding many hitters who never faced the challenge before.

Predictably, run production fell to 4.09 per team, the lowest rate since 1981, according to Baseballpastandpresent.com.

This year, runs have spiked to 4.39 per game per team, as hitters have quickly adjusted. Statisticians attribute the increase to the season’s home run bonanza.

The old adage, when facing a hard-thrower, was to tell yourself, “The harder it comes in, the harder it goes out.”

True enough. Swinging with conviction and connecting with a fastball approaching 100 miles per hour can produce a satisfying result.

No one is enjoying the home run boom more than the Baltimore Orioles. When left fielder Hyun-soo Kim’s line drive cleared the right-field fence in Seattle Thursday night, it was the team’s 56th of the month, a record for June. Baltimore are on pace to hit 262 for the season, which would park them just behind the record 264 homers the Seattle Mariners collected in 1997.

The Orioles’ rainstorm of homers has propelled them to first place in the American League East. But it isn’t a perfect formula.

The long ball is more entertaining than a predictor of success. The San Francisco Giants are 29th in home runs, yet lead the National League West. Seattle, the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers are among the top seven in home runs, yet none are currently contending for a playoff spot.

Many of those happy home run hitters are sacrificing other offensive numbers. Todd Frazier of the Chicago White Sox leads MLB with 23 home runs, but is hitting an embarrassing .203.

Chris Carter of the Milwaukee Brewers, Trevor Story of the Colorado Rockies and Chris Davis of the Orioles all have 19 home runs – and more than 100 strikeouts.

Rookie Adam Duvall of the Cincinnati Reds has 22 home runs, but whiffs an average of 3 of every 10 at bats.

Indeed, 15 of the 43 players on pace to hit 30 homers strikeout at least once per game, on average.

The home-run-or-nothing approach has given run production a boost, and put the record book on notice. But until it produces a champion or two, it’s only a trend, not a strategy.

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