One week into the new season, and guess what comes to mind? Donald Rumsfeld's quip from a news briefing 15 years ago.
“There are known knowns,” said Rumsfeld, the United States secretary of defence at the time, with regard to a question about Iraq and weapons of mass destruction.
“These are things we know that we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
With an eye on the rest of 2017, let us discuss the “unknown unknowns” first, on the evidence of the three ATP tournaments in Doha, Brisbane and Chennai, and the Hopman Cup in Perth.
First on the list in that category would be Grigor Dimitrov's stunning win in Brisbane, a tournament that featured world No 3 Milos Raonic, No 4 Stan Wawrinka, No 5 Kei Nishikori, No 8 Dominic Thiem and No 9 Rafael Nadal.
Dimitrov, 25, defeated three of those top 10 to end a two-and-a-half-year wait for his fifth title, starting first with Thiem in the quarter-finals, followed by defending champion Raonic in the semis and then Nishikori.
Those wins, in the opening week of the season, will certainly be a massive boost for the Bulgarian. But does it also mean Dimitrov, a fleeting star for years now, will finally deliver on his promise in 2017?
That is a big “unknown unknown”, along with Nishikori and Raonic’s ability to win majors, Wawrinka’s capacity to play consistent through the season or Nick Kyrgios’s determination to stay out of trouble.
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What about the “known unknowns”? Roger Federer probably features on the top of this list, alongside his nemesis of yore — Rafael Nadal.
We know Federer is coming from a long injury break and will probably peak sometime in the summer, around Wimbledon time. We know, on his day, he can play for the heavens, like he did against Richard Gasquet in the Hopman Cup last week.
But we also know Generation Next is catching up on him — five of his seven defeats last season came against Raonic (Wimbledon and Brisbane), Alexander Zverev (Halle) and Thiem (Stuttgart and Rome). Zverev beat him again in Perth last week.
Can Federer, who turns 36 in August, win his battles against much younger players in 2017 and add to his tally of 17 grand slam titles?
That is a definite “known unknown”, just like Nadal’s quest for a 10th French Open crown and his 15th major title.
What we do know about Nadal: he is healthier than he has been in recent memory, he is playing better and remains passionate, playing every point like his life depended on it. But can he put himself into the reckoning for the big ones and, more crucially, remain healthy? Again, a "known unknown".
Now, for the “known knowns”, and you have probably guessed it already: Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, and their rivalry, will be the headline acts of 2017, just like it was in 2016.
If anyone had any doubts, Saturday's final in Doha should have erased it.
The Qatar Open final was, like most of their earlier duels, a gruelling battle, lasting 174 minutes with Murray saving three match points in the second set before losing in the third.
Djokovic, understandably, was elated after the win, given his difficult circumstances in the second half of 2016.
“It is something that definitely can serve as a positive incentive for what’s coming up in Australia,” said the Serb, who lost his No 1 ranking in the final weeks of the previous season following an incredible Murray surge.
A six-time Australian Open champion, Djokovic desperately needed such a confidence boost ahead of his Melbourne campaign, especially since the win comes against the reigning world No 1 and a man who was on a 28-match winning streak.
But what does the defeat bode for the Scot?
“I still think I have a chance of winning the Australian Open after tonight,” said Murray, who has reached the final of the year’s opening grand slam tournament in five of the past seven years. “I don’t think that changes.”
And who would dare disagree? Murray has been the best player of the past 12 months, but, to play safe, you could include Djokovic alongside him as the two men to beat in Melbourne.
Four of the past six Australian Open finals (and the semis in 2012) have featured these two across the net, and the possibility of a fifth certainly falls in the “known knowns” category.
arizvi@thenational.ae
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