Only a fool would doubt Rafael Nadal’s chances of winning a 10th French Open title

Given the way he has lorded over the European clay courts this season, can anyone really stop the Spaniard from winning a 15th major crown at Roland Garros?

Rafael Nadal celebrates his victory at the Madrid Open men's final match against Austrian Dominic Thiem at the Magic Box in Madrid, Spain, 14 May 2017. Sergio Barrenechea / EPA

Last week, Fabio Fognini, the mercurial tennis player from Italy, had a friendly, but rather reckless, wager with his family and, not surprisingly, he lost.

“I thought Nole [Novak Djokovic] would beat Rafa [Rafael Nadal],” Fognini revealed ahead of this week’s Rome Masters. “Now I will have to take them [his family] out for dinner as they had picked Rafa to win the [Madrid] title.”

Fognini is a rather feisty character and prone to making a few injudicious calls, at least on the tennis courts. But not many would fault him for picking Djokovic to win last week's Madrid Masters semi-final against Nadal. Stats, at least the most recent ones, were loaded heavily in favour of the Serb, who had won their past seven duels, three of which were on clay. And all seven of those matches were straight-sets affairs.

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■ Madrid Masters: Rafael Nadal beats a game Dominic Thiem in final

■ Barcelona Open: King of clay keeps 'dream start' going with 10th Barcelona title

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So, did Nadal really stand a chance against Djokovic, the reigning French Open champion? Fognini, at least, did not think so. He was probably one of many. But then, Nadal is one of a kind – one who loves shredding all those farewells that have been written for him over the years, one who has a habit of mocking naysayers from the early days of his career, when, upon the discovery of a congenital deformity, he was told his career was over before it had even begun.

Nadal, less than three weeks away from his 31st birthday on June 3, is now the proud owner of 72 titles. That collection includes 14 grand slams titles and, given the way he has lorded over the European clay courts this season, can anyone really stop him from winning a 15th major crown at the French Open, a tournament he has won nine times, when play begins next week?

Only someone as brave as Fognini would pick anyone other than Nadal to triumph on the red clay of Roland Garros, given “El Fenomena’s” pedigree on the surface. He is the King of Clay, winner of 91.8 per cent of his matches and 52 titles on the surface.

He is in sizzling form as well, winning three back-to-back titles on clay – Monte-Carlo, Barcelona and now Madrid – to climb to the top of the ATP’s Race to London rankings.

The struggles of 2015 and 2016 look a distant memory. The 2017 Nadal – in those irreverent sleeveless tops and pirate shorts – seems a lot like the one we saw in 2007, or earlier. Remember that youthful spring in his steps during those early years? Or his contemptuous glance across the court, or into the stands, after leaving his opponent stranded with a scorching winner? They are back, along with those outrageous slices that drop dead at the net and those admonishing snarls that usually followed an error.

The Nadal of 2017 knows he owns these courts, and that is essentially the difference between him and the plebeian of 2015 and 2016, who lost seven consecutive matches to Djokovic, was beaten by Dominic Thiem on the clay courts of Buenos Aires (2016) and lost to Fognini three times in 2015.

Last week, he beat all three of them in Madrid, along with Nick Kyrgios and David Goffin, and each of those wins must be worth their weight in gold in terms of confidence.

Lest we forget, Nadal also reached the final of the Australian Open, Acapulco and Miami. So, coming to Paris, Nadal is the hottest player on the men’s tour, his performance in this week’s Rome Masters notwithstanding. The only slight concern is his workload.

If the Spaniard reaches the final in the Italian capital as well, it would mean he has played 20 matches in the 33 days leading up to the French Open

After winning Madrid, Nadal did say he was feeling “a little bit tired”. However, he also said “the joy of winning” keeps him going, keeps him “alive”.

The two-week French Open, then, should witness an engrossing tussle between his body and mind, but if the likes of Fognini are fancying a friendly wager on Nadal’s weary limbs, they should remember his mind has won most of those battles up to now.

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