La Decima calling: Rafael Nadal out on his own as favourite to win a 10th French Open title

Rafael Nadal faces Benoit Paire in the first round of the French Open. Benoit Tessier / Reuters

Last year, Novak Djokovic’s elusive quest for his first French Open title was the prevalent theme at Roland Garros. This season it is “La Decima”.

Can Rafael Nadal, after two years of disappointments, finally get his 10th French Open title this season? The Spaniard has already won his 10th at Monte-Carlo and Barcelona this season and, who can really stop him?

Djokovic? One of only two men to beat Nadal at the French Open in the 2015 quarter-final, the Serb is going through one of the leanest patches of his career. He did show some semblance of form in reaching the Rome Masters final last week — his first final since Doha — but can he really last until the semi-finals, where he is drawn to meet the “King of Clay”?

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If Djokovic fails to survive the early challenges, then Dominic Thiem could be Nadal’s likely semi-final opponent. The Austrian is the only man to beat Nadal on clay this season — in the Rome quarter-final — but then Nadal had defeated him earlier in the Barcelona and Madrid finals.

In the final, Nadal could meet either world No 1 Andy Murray or Stan Wawrinka, and both have not had a very convincing build-ups to the French Open. Murray has won four and lost four of his clay court matches this season, losing three of his last four. Wawrinka is 6-3 on clay, but has built up some late momentum having retained his Geneva Open title on Saturday. He had failed to win back-to-back matches in Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome.

Nadal, however, is not looking that far ahead. He is scheduled to meet Frenchman Benoit Paire in the opening round and the world No 45 can be a tricky opponent — he beat Wawrinka in the third round in Monte Carlo earlier this month.

“He’s not an opponent you want to play against in the first round,” Nadal said. “He’s a player with big talent — great serve, great hands and a fantastic backhand. He’s a dangerous opponent.”

This is not the first time Nadal has been drawn against a tricky opponent in the first round at Roland Garros. Returning to the French capital as a first-time defending champion in 2006, he started his campaign against Robin Soderling. Nadal won that one in straight sets, but three years later, the Swede shocked the world by knocking out the then four-time defending champion in the fourth round.

That was the first time Nadal had failed to reach the final at Roland Garros and since then, he has only been stopped twice from lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires — by Djokovic in the 2015 quarter-final, and by a wrist injury which forced him to withdraw prior to his third round match last year.

Nadal has therefore won the title on nine of his 12 visits to Roland Garros and owns a formidable 72-2 record at the French Open. Can he maintain his supremacy? Both Thiem and Djokovic certainly think so.

“Rafa playing on his favourite surface won three tournaments in a row this year, and playing confidently and much better than he was playing last year,” Djokovic said. “I definitely see him as the No 1 favourite for this title.”

“Hundred per cent, he’s the big favourite,” Thiem said. “I think he’s back at his best this year, and then also he won here nine times. So he knows how it works to win here.

“I think he will try everything to win La Decima, I think it will be very unique in tennis to win a grand slam title 10 times. It’s pretty crazy, I guess.”

Crazy indeed, but Nadal remains pretty level-headed.

“I am very happy the way that I arrived here,” he said. “Now I have to play well here. That’s all.”

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