Rivalry between Certify and Flotilla could be coming to an abrupt end

Certify favourite to win Group 2 Balanchine Stakes at the Dubai World Cup Carnival, but Flotilla will be retired if she does not run well at Meydan Racecourse, says trainer Mikel Delzangles.

Jockey Mickael Barzalona will be looking to ride Certify to success again at Meydan tonight after the combination triumphed at the Cape Verdi three weeks ago at the Dubai track. Satish Kumar / The NatShow more

The disappointment is tangible. When it was announced at the beginning of last month that Certify was to continue her racing career the world waited with bated breath.

The Godolphin filly and Flotilla were put on a course to clash during the Dubai World Cup Carnival and a rivalry between two of the best fillies in Europe was going to be one of the highlights of the UAE season.

Certify has played her part, coming back from an enforced absence due to an anabolic steroid ban to post an authoritative victory in the Cape Verdi three weeks ago. Certify missed her three-year-old season and the chance of Classic glory, but Flotilla augmented her rich juvenile campaign that included a win at the Breeders’ Cup with a stylish success in the French 1,000 Guineas.

It proved that the French filly still had the elan from her two-year-old days.

Then the wheels came off and her run in Thursday's Balanchine Stakes at Meydan Racecourse is a final throw of the dice.

Mikel Delzangles, the trainer, is ready to put an end to her career if she puts in a similarly lacklustre performance to the one that saw her trail in behind Certify under tonight’s rider Christophe Lemaire.

“It might be a mental problem,” the French trainer said. “It is a test for her, and if she doesn’t run well I will retire her. I want to see her finish her race well, at the very least. She looks much better in her morning work now and I just hope that she still wants to fight.”

It is an ignominious fall from grace, especially as the daughter of Mizzen Mast, a Grade 1 winner in the US, is still the highest-rated filly in the six-runner line-up.

Of the other challengers the form book states that L’Amour De Ma Vie was only three quarters of a length behind Certify in the Cape Verdi and her breeding suggests that tonight’s step up in didstance will suit her perfectly.

Although the early pace in the Cape Verdi was slow, at the business end of the race they were flat out.

Certify clocked a smooth 22.45 seconds for the final 400 metres with Mickael Barzalona using only his hands, and heels and she did not appear to be stopping.

On the other hand L’Amour De Ma Vie, who will be ridden again tonight by Maxime Guyon, was pushing hard to pull almost five lengths clear of Pearl Of Africa, who re-opposes tonight.

It would take a huge leap of faith to believe that any of the other runners have the ability to bridge the gulf in class.

The standard time for the final 400m for the average horse at Meydan last season over the same 1,600m on turf was 23.84 seconds. Certify, therefore, is unlikely to be caught and the only way it seems she can be defeated is due to a dawdling pace.

Both Saeed bin Suroor’s Shuruq and Flotilla contributed to the increase in pace throughout the Cape Verdi, but Certify will have no pacemaker tonight. Her turn of foot, however, is likely to be enough.

The Balanchine was meant to be Episode 2 in a thrilling rivalry, after the Cape Verdi between Flotilla and Certify, one Guineas winner in France, one denied her chance in England.

Unless Flotilla improves dramatically, we are likely to get a procession from one, and a retirement from the other; a less appetising spectacle all around.