The scenarios for the world title are very clear ahead of the Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix following Sunday's finish in Brazil.
Lewis Hamilton’s championship fate remains in his own hands, and regardless of what anyone else does, he will leave Yas Marina Circuit on November 23 as a double world champion if he finishes in the top two.
In many ways, however, the season’s penultimate day could be more important to his title chase. Qualifying is crucial if the Mercedes-GP driver wants to give himself the most trouble-free weekend. The qualifying session has proven to be the one area where Nico Rosberg has had an edge over the 2008 world champion this season.
The German has 10 pole positions to Hamilton’s seven, and he is up 11-7 overall in their personal qualifying battle this season.
Rosberg took pole in Brazil and track advantage proved crucial as Hamilton, despite being visibly quicker, was unable to find a way past his teammate in the closing laps, forcing him to settle for second place.
While Rosberg had dominated practice and set the pace in qualifying, once again in the race it was Hamilton who showed superior speed, particularly after he had pulled back a seven-second deficit following a mid-race spin.
Overtaking will be very possible at Yas Marina Circuit, with the two DRS [Drag Reduction System] zones on the run downs to Turns 8 and 11, but to keep his life simple, and most importantly to avoid risks, Hamilton’s preferred scenario will be simply to lead from the front.
Take the pole, lead the race, control his own pace, complete 55 laps and become champion in winning fashion.
Sounds simple, right?
Given Rosberg’s form on a Saturday afternoons this year, it is easier said than done.
Rosberg has put in some great laps during qualifying this year, but will be desperate to prevent his teammate from starting at the front to ensure that Hamilton does not have an easy afternoon.
The German needs to win and hope for problems to hit his teammate. If he takes pole, he is in prime position to run his own race and give his teammate the minimum margin of error for becoming champion.
It also allows him to control Hamilton’s pace as events unfold and to potentially force his teammate to take a risk if he is holding up during the race.
Mercedes have taken 17 of the 18 poles this season – Austria in June is the only one to have gotten away – so it is not unreasonable to expect one of them to be lining up at the front when the field lines up at 5pm on November 23.
Hamilton can take heart from the fact that he has a strong record in past qualifying attempts at Yas Marina, having been on the front row during the first four stagings of the race.
He took the pole for the inaugural race in 2009, was second in both 2010 and 2011 behind the dominant Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull Racing, and took pole in the 2012 event in his third-to-last race for McLaren-Mercedes.
Championships are not decided by the results on Saturday, but they can heavily influence the narratives ahead.
The action on November 22 will decide just how difficult a race Hamilton and his fans can expect.
gcaygill@thenational.ae
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