Plots that will decide the quarter-final winner from Australia and Pakistan

Key match-up battles and the men who could have a decisive say in the third quarter-final.

Australia's Mitchell Starc has bowled the yorkers to perfection and is a daunting threat for the Pakistan batsmen. Michael Bradley / AFP

Key men

Mitchell Johnson

One Mitchell has overshadowed the other, but Johnson feels like a bomb waiting to explode. He has had good spells and poor ones so far but, if Pakistan can subdue Starc, then Johnson must up his game against an always flimsy batting order.

Glenn Maxwell You can see Pakistan’s pace attack getting top-order wickets, especially if they manage to extract a little swing. But when both balls are a little older and softer, then the onus will be on Maxwell to come good lower down. He has done well here but usually when Australia have been in a strong position anyway.

Rahat Ali

Of the quartet of fast bowlers, the most unsung has been Rahat. He had hardly played ODI cricket before the tournament but here he has buzzed the ball around with real vibrancy. If he gets swing early on, he could trouble Australia’s top order.

Ahmed Shehzad

He is the most complete opener that Pakistan have had in years. But he is having a poor World Cup. He has hit some semblance of form, albeit against weaker bowlers, but Pakistan’s batting strategy revolves around him: get in, bat long and let others build around.

Australia will win if ...

They play the way they are expected to, and each player performs to his capabilities. Man for man they are a stronger side than Pakistan. On recent form they are a better side and they whitewashed Pakistan in the one-day international series in the UAE recently. They play modern ODI cricket, of a kind Pakistan just cannot.

Pakistan will win if ...

They bat first. Then, somehow, they put up an old-fashion reasonable ODI total, somewhere between 250-270. And then they let their fast bowlers loose under the lights, and even then their fast bowlers will need to be at the very top of their game. So too will their fielders. In other words, Pakistan will have to hit their maximum capability.

Key numbers

1

The number of wins Pakistan have over Australia in Australia in their last 17 matches in all formats. The one win was in 2005, in an ODI.

13

The number of catches that Pakistan dropped through the group stages, the most of any side.

13.8

The average number of balls after which Australia’s Mitchell Starc has taken a wicket in the tournament so far.

Pitch

Adelaide has looked like a batting paradise in the matches it has staged so far but it has not always turned out that way. Fast bowlers have extracted a little swing early on, and a bit of reverse later as well. India’s 300 against Pakistan remains the highest score at the ground in the tournament, on the lower end compared to some other venues.

Our verdict

Australia should be too strong for Pakistan. All-round they are a stronger side and home support will help. The kind of run Pakistan are in at the moment, however, puts the result into more than a bit of doubt. A Pakistan win is not inconceivable but an Australian win is the expectation.

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