I watch a fair bit of hockey and am of two minds about the rise of statistical analysis.
Analytics can offer insight when comparing players but comes with its own set of biases.
Let me explain.
My favourite stat is one that analytics specialists scoff at: the Neilson number.
The Neilson number traces back to the late coach Roger Neilson, aka Captain Video, who in his day guided eight NHL teams including the New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs.
It works like so: any time a player deserves some credit for a “scoring chance for” he gets a plus mark. Any time he bears some responsibility for a “scoring chance against” he gets a minus.
Neilson’s idea was that scoring chances are what count, at both ends of the ice, regardless of whether they actually result in a goal.
This is following the same logic as the analytics workhorse stat Corsi – but whereas Corsi uses shot attempts as a proxy for scoring chances, the Neilson number uses no proxy.
In order to cut out the middleman, it has to do one important thing: it has to be evaluative.
You need to watch a scoring chance over and over to figure out what went wrong or right.
The long-time Edmonton Journal hockey writer David Staples, a champion of the Neilson number, says he sometimes has to watch a chance as many as 20 times to parse it properly. (That is my experience as well.)
However, the evaluative aspect means the Neilson number is poison for analytics specialists.
It is not a proper statistic.
It is not inter-subjective.
That means, two people can look at the same scoring chance and describe it two different ways.
Observations that cannot be replicated regardless of viewer are of limited utility to statisticians.
Here we run into the core of the issue.
The rise of analytics is secure. It is now part of the mainstream, and many teams keep stats experts on staff or on call.
The old-school view, one that valued grit and character and the eye test, no longer stands alone.
But just as the old school valued only those measures that derived from human judgment, so, too, the new school is limited in that they value only those measures that derive from numerical analysis.
That is a flaw.
The measure that is truest is not necessarily the measure that is most statistically useful.
One can draw a parallel with the history of economics.
For many decades, from men like Adam Smith through to Thorstein Veblen, economic thought was far more a matter of philosophy than of number-crunching.
Then in the mid-20th century, as data became better and more widely available, the field went through a half-century in which numbers were everything.
More recently came a backlash, as behavioural economists forced the human element back into the equation.
My hunch is that something similar will happen in hockey. It cannot be all numbers, and it cannot be all impressions.
Someday maybe the Neilson number, which really is just a series of yes or no choices, such as did so-and-so cover his man?
Or did the player fire his shot from the danger zone near the net?
Did “X” win the battle along the boards that got the play started?
All those could become a replicable statistic.
This probably cannot happen until the league puts microchips in the puck and in players’ sticks or jerseys.
And that is something the league began experimenting with only this year.
rmckenzie@thenational.ae
Follow us on twitter at @NatSportUAE
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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The five pillars of Islam
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
RESULTS
5pm: Watha Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 2,000m
Winner: Dalil De Carrere, Bernardo Pinheiro (jockey), Mohamed Daggash (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: Miracle Maker, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Pharitz Al Denari, Bernardo Pinheiro, Mahmood Hussain
6.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Oss, Jesus Rosales, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: ES Nahawand, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: AF Almajhaz, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi
8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,000m
Winner: AF Lewaa, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qaiss Aboud.
Inside%20Out%202
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Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company%20Profile
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The view from The National
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
RESULTS
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jordan Sport, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Conditions $200,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Jungle Cat, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Kimbear, Patrick Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $300,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $400,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: North America, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 $250,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner: Hawkbill, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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BORDERLANDS
Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis
Director: Eli Roth
Rating: 0/5
The%20specs
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Wydad 2 Urawa 3
Wydad Nahiri 21’, Hajhouj 90'
Urawa Antonio 18’, 60’, Kashiwagi 26’
The%20Specs
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Sreesanth's India bowling career
Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40
ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55
T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12
The%20specs%3A%202024%20Mercedes%20E200
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RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP FIXTURES
September 30
South Africa v Australia
Argentina v New Zealand
October 7
South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia
Blackpink World Tour [Born Pink] In Cinemas
Starring: Rose, Jisoo, Jennie, Lisa
Directors: Min Geun, Oh Yoon-Dong
Rating: 3/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Homie%20Portal%20LLC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20End%20of%202021%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Kamda%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Undisclosed%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2014%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELaunch%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
What are the GCSE grade equivalents?
- Grade 9 = above an A*
- Grade 8 = between grades A* and A
- Grade 7 = grade A
- Grade 6 = just above a grade B
- Grade 5 = between grades B and C
- Grade 4 = grade C
- Grade 3 = between grades D and E
- Grade 2 = between grades E and F
- Grade 1 = between grades F and G
Company%20Profile
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