When Sunderland’s Premier League fate is finally sealed, the history books will show that even with six games left and eight points from safety, the Wearside club’s destiny was still in their hands.
With 18 points still to play for, survival, no matter how improbable — and with their last two fixtures away to Arsenal and Chelsea — was still mathematical possible.
But what the history books will also show is that Sunderland were as good as doomed even before Christmas. The task of staying up after taking only two points from their opening 10 fixtures had the look of a one-legged man who had forgotten his climbing boot trying to scale Mount Everest.
When Sunderland manager David Moyes analysed the teams mired around his in the relegation spots — currently Middlesbrough and Swansea City — and those who have hovered too close for comfort around them — namely Hull City and Bournemouth — the one advantage Sunderland had over most of their rivals was a proven goalscorer: Jermain Defoe.
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Of their closest rivals, only Joshua King at Bournemouth (13) and Fernando Llorente (11) have reached double figures while Defoe had 14 by the beginning of February, which equates to almost 54 per cent of Sunderland’s overall tally this term.
The former West Ham United, Tottenham Hotspur and Portsmouth striker — along with some astute January signings by previous manager Sam Allardyce — kept Sunderland in the league by the skin of their teeth in 2015/16.
Without Defoe’s 15 goals, Sunderland would have spent this campaign trying to return to the top tier instead of desperately trying to remain in it.
For the majority of this season, Defoe has again been the one shining light in a squad light on numbers and threadbare on quality. Like performances, and too often the manager, January signings have underwhelmed this season.
Tried-and-trusted lieutenants such as Victor Anichebe, Darron Gibson and Bryan Oviedo were signed in desperation more than aspiration, yet Moyes could always count on the goals of Defoe to give his side a fighting chance.
But Defoe’s 2016/17 campaign can be summed up as feast and famine.
On February 4, Defoe scored two goals in a 4-0 rout away to Crystal Palace in what should have been the catalyst for Sunderland to make a fist of preserving their top-flight status.
Those twin strikes took his tally to 14, which, considering how much poorer Sunderland’s squad is this season compared to last, is even more incredible.
So impressive had Defoe’s form been in March he received a call-up to Gareth Southgate’s England squad for the friendly away to Germany and the World Cup qualifier at home to Latvia. He scored in the latter, but has not netted for his club since that goal at Wembley Stadium on March 26.
It is hard to say Defoe’s goal drought has come at exactly the wrong time for Moyes’s Sunderland. Any time would have been the wrong time.
Sunderland went seven games without even a goal before last week’s 2-2 draw against West Ham United.
Chances of survival for the Premier League’s basement club, no matter how remote, are dead and buried unless Defoe can start firing again.
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