Republic of Ireland's wretched form threatens to get much worse

Facing the indignity of Nations League relegation, Ireland manager Kenny is missing 13 of his original 26-man party for match against Bulgaria

Wales' Gareth Bale, left, and Republic of Ireland's Matt Doherty embrace after the Nations League B Group 4 match in Cardiff. Wales won the match 1-0. Reuters REUTERS/Rebecca Naden

Republic of Ireland's Robert Brady in action. Reuters

Republic of Ireland's midfielder Jeff Hendrick , second right, is suspended for the Nations League match against Bulgaria. AFP

Republic of Ireland's Darren Randolph during the warm up before the match against Wales. Reuters

Republic of Ireland's Shane Duffy, centre, was the last Irish player to score an international goal, against Bulgaria last year. Reuters

Republic of Ireland's James McClean will miss the Bulgaria game after testing positive for Covid-19. Reuters

Republic of Ireland's Daryl Horgan. Reuters

Manager Stephen Kenny has not seen his Ireland side score in six games. Reuters

Republic of Ireland's Robert Brady. Reuters

Republic of Ireland's midfielder James McClean shoots towards goal against Wales. AFP

Perhaps it is time to retire the cliché about the luck of the Irish. Stephen Kenny’s brief, ill-fated reign in charge of the Republic of Ireland has been marked by the sort of misfortune that suggests he is cursed and the kind of results that indicate he is doomed.

Ireland lost a Euro 2020 play-off on penalties. Wednesday, defeat to Bulgaria would condemn them to relegation to the third tier of the Uefa Nations League and possible meetings, as peers, with some of Europe’s genuine minnows. Within 11 weeks of his managerial bow, Kenny has made history of the wrong sort. Ireland are on their longest goal drought ever, some six games and 570 minutes since Shane Duffy equalised in Bulgaria in September.

The top scorer in Kenny's tenure is Fredrik Jensen, who has struck twice for Finland against Ireland. Kenny's side have more red cards than goals, meaning Jeff Hendrick is suspended against Bulgaria. But absentees outnumber everything else: today's cast list of the missing includes 13 of Kenny's original 26-man party. Hendrick and Jayson Molumbuy are banned while Matt Doherty and James McClean joined Alan Browne and Callum Robinson in testing positive for coronavirus. Seamus Coleman, John Egan, Enda Stevens, Aaron Connolly, Adam Idah, James McCarthy and Harry Arter are injured.

Across three international windows, Kenny has lost five players to positive Covid-19 tests. Six more missed games as close contacts of others and, in two cases, they were false positives. Kenny has even lost his goalkeeping coach, Alan Kelly, who cited his asthma as a reason for returning home.

A rejigged squad now features three Shamrock Rovers players and two from League One. Kenny will have to make at least five changes, but continuity has been impossible. And amid the makeshift teams and rapidly changing plans, he has tried to implement a new style of play: more progressive, with more possession.

It is an understatement to say it has not succeeded yet. Ireland’s six goalless games are proof of that. They have registered 19 shots on target in that time although, apart from a couple of opportunities for Browne in the play-off against Slovakia, too few have been clear-cut opportunities. And, in any case, Ireland have long struggled to convert those: since the centre-back Duffy opened his account three years ago, he is their top scorer. That one of their goal-shy strikers, David McGoldrick, recently retired from international football, scarcely adds to their firepower.

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The underlying question is whether Ireland can implement Kenny’s plans. His predecessor Mick McCarthy was in the commentary box for his first few games, offering the voice of pragmatism that has been the dominant school of thought among Ireland managers since Jack Charlton took over in 1986. McCarthy at least tried to be diplomatic while maintaining that crosses and set-pieces offered the best avenue to goal; others who felt implicitly slighted by Kenny’s so far unrewarded ambition were not.

“The style of play he wants to play with the players, none of them are good enough,” said a scornful Roy Keane. “There is a lack of quality.” He may not be an impartial observer, as Martin O’Neill’s assistant during a time when Ireland played increasingly awful football, but it is a valid theory.

Comparable countries like Wales and Scotland have far more talent; Wales, in particular, have more goalscorers. The Irish diaspora has added plenty, particularly in Charlton's day, but now Jack Grealish and Declan Rice, formerly Ireland's Under 21 and young player of the year respectively, line up for England. That should not mean Ireland should not aim for anything better than sterile, direct football but so far they have been inoffensive and innocuous.

“The current manager should be expecting now to be heavily criticised,” said Keane after Sunday’s 1-0 defeat to Wales. Circumstances should mitigate that, but relegation after a wretched autumn might plunge Irish football into a civil war.