The four-year cycle means World Cups form a natural end point. Eras end, sometimes for an entire team, often for individuals. We have surely already seen the final World Cup games of Diego Forlan, Andrea Pirlo, Gianluigi Buffon, Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Iker Casillas, Xavi, Xabi Alonso, David Villa, Tim Cahill, Didier Drogba and Rafael Marquez.
Others don’t know it yet. Injury, poor form, the rise of younger rivals or managerial choice will deny them a starring role in Russia in 2018.
Sometimes the finality is apparent to everyone. This is not merely the end of a World Cup career, or an international career. It is the end of a career. Every game in the knockout stages has the potential to bring the curtain down.
In 2010, Giovanni van Bronckhorst took the unusual step of announcing that his playing days would conclude at the World Cup. He didn’t look for another contract. He captained Holland in the final, coming agonisingly close to the most perfect goodbye in the history.
Advance to the current day and, while we don’t know precisely what the future holds for most of the players and managers in Brazil, it is clear-cut for one man.
Ottmar Hitzfeld will retire. A managerial career spanning more than three decades entered sudden death when Switzerland lost 5-2 to France. Beating Honduras extended it. Defeat Argentina on Tuesday night and it goes on. Lose, as most expect his side will, and there will be a crushing finality. It is rarely as definitive as this.
“We are the clear outsiders, but we have nothing to lose and much to gain,” Hitzfeld said.
That is not strictly true. The game stands to lose Hitzfeld, a manager who isn’t mentioned as often as he should be when the legends are discussed.
Before the Bundesliga was as fashionable as it now is, the reality is that German football produced the European champions only twice between 1983 and 2012: Hitzfeld’s Borussia Dortmund in 1997 and Hitzfeld’s Bayern Munich in 2001. He was also just the second man to win the European Cup with different clubs, after Ernst Happel.
It gives him a cast-iron case for greatness, even before seven Bundesliga titles are factored in. Hitfzeld rejected the chance to succeed Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United in 2002 – the Scot revoked his decision to retire, anyway – which might have brought wider recognition for his achievements.
Instead, there has been a pleasingly cyclical nature to his football life. His managerial career, like his playing days, is starting and ending in Switzerland, sandwiching a peak in Germany.
His six years with Switzerland included a 2010 win over Spain, making them the only team to beat Spain in the three tournaments they won, and a defeat to Luxembourg. The landmark victory against Vicente del Bosque’s team wasn’t the breakthrough it seemed, and Switzerland failed to qualify for the last 16.
While they didn’t live up to their billing as top seeds this time and were thrashed by France – and when was a Hitzfeld team last 5-0 down? – managerial input accounts for their progress. Both goals in the 2-1 comeback win over Ecuador came from replacements, Ahmed Mehmedi and Haris Seferovic. Hitzfeld switched Xherdan Shaqiri from the right wing to the No 10 position against Honduras and saw him score three goals. “That paid off,” said the manager with a hint of understatement.
The old master, bowing out at 65, has illustrated his enduring skills. His young charges have rather fewer achievements to their name and are underdogs against Lionel Messi and company.
“We can make history,” Hitzfeld said.
He, of course, has already made it, time and again. But, probably, no more.
sports@thenational.ae
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How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.