Is there such a thing as securing Premier League safety too soon? Not if you’re WBA or Watford

Is there such a thing as securing safety too early? The millions on offer for each of the 20 teams at the start of each Premier League campaign is now almost symbiotic to each club’s prospects that relegation from it – in the most extreme cases at least – could threaten your club’s very existence.

Cementing top-flight status for a handful of clubs is as good as winning the title. The sooner its done, the better. Minds can rest easy, players contracts can be negotiated, transfer targets identified, budgets finalised and books balanced. The manager, his staff and players congratulated on a job well done.

There is another school of thought, though.

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Let’s look at the cases of West Bromwich Albion and Waford, to use two examples. Two teams, both in the top half of the table (West Brom eighth, Watford 10th), who secured their survival with some six or seven games remaining.

The concern (and I use the word loosely) is that with their futures secured the players’ intensity in both training and matches will drop; the small details analysed to gain an edge over the opposition not scrutinised to quite the same degree; supporter numbers dwindle with little excitement to be found in mid-table.

West Brom are 14 points behind seventh-placed Everton, albeit with a game in hand, and, before last Thursday night’s encounter with Manchester City, 19 points behind Manchester United, who occupy fifth, the sole Europa League place up for grabs via the league. Short of winning their remaining five games, they will likely finish closer – in points – to the relegation places, of which they enjoy a 13-point cushion over 18th-placed Swansea City, than they will challenge the established order.

Similarly Watford hit 40 points, the mark historically seen as the benchmark for safety, with a 1-0 win against Swansea on April 15. Their following fixture, against relegation-threatened Hull City, ended in a 2-0 defeat to a team that played the majority of the match with 10 men following a soft red card to striker Oumar Niasse.

To sum up the team’s performance, one Watford supporter told this writer the team played better in two chastening defeats to Tottenham Hotspur, where they were demolished 8-1 on aggregate, than they did in last week’s insipid and uninspired display at the KCOM Stadium.

It is only logical that with the pressure that comes with ensuring Premier League safety that efforts would wane once it was secured. It should not be overstated either the achievement of Italian manager Walter Mazzarri in the fine job he has done at Vicarage Road in his first crack at the Premier League.

To answer the question more in depth though we must first examine each team’s goals at the start of 2016/17. For West Brom and, save for Leicester City, the soon-to-be deposed champions, every team below Watford in the table the aim will have been Premier League survival.

Some critics say that may lack ambition, but many have flown too close to the sun and scorched their wings. Since the first Premier League in 1992/93 only six teams have contested every season.

Of those that have chased unrealistic dreams, Leeds United nearly went out of existence, Wimbledon did, eventually rebranded as Milton Keynes Dons and relocated 90 kilometres away from their spiritual home in South London. Manchester City and Southampton both dropped two divisions before emerging as Premier League forces. Blackburn Rovers, champions of the top tier in 1995, look set to contest the 2017/18 season in its third. While Newcastle United secured an immediate return from the Championship, many more have fallen and are yet to return.

This is the reality of the Premier League. Leicester’s triumph last season was a one-off. Even perennial top-four finishers Arsenal are in danger of missing out on Uefa Champions League qualification, but the worst they will do is finish seventh.

That means ostensibly 10 places are up for grabs, with no one wanting to finish in the bottom three. In that regard, the likes Tony Pulis (West Brom), Sam Allardyce (Crystal Palace, 12th) and Mark Hughes (Stoke City, 11th) – survival specialists – are worth their weight in gold.

So, is there such a thing as securing safety too soon? No. Because while West Brom and Watford may have little left to play for, Hull, Swansea, Middlesbrough and basement dwellers Sunderland would swap places with them in a heartbeat.

sluckings@thenational.ae

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'The Ice Road'

Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne

2/5

How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?

If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.

Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.

Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.

Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).

Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.

Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.

By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.

As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.

Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.

He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”

This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”

Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.