English Premier League failures in Uefa Champions League not a reflection of decline

In other circumstances, Chelsea’s 1-1 draw away to Galatasasary on Wednesday might have been greeted with rather more circumspection. Why hadn’t they finished off a team who had been there for the taking in the opening half hour? What went wrong with the marking for the equaliser?

Chelsea's John Terry, centre, applauds after their Uefa Champions League match against Galatasaray at Turk Telekom Arena in Istanbul on February 26, 2014. Murad Sezer / Reuters

In other circumstances, Chelsea's 1-1 draw away to Galatasasary in the Uefa Champions League on Wednesday might have been greeted with more circumspection.

Why hadn’t they finished off a team who had been there for the taking in the opening half hour?

What went wrong with the marking for the equaliser?

As it was, most in English football were just glad that they had not, like the other three Premier League teams in action, been beaten 2-0.

Chelsea should go through and Manchester United might overcome a 2-0 deficit at home to Olympiacos, but it is hard to see Manchester City coming back against Barcelona or Arsenal doing so against Bayern Munich.

So the likelihood is that the Premier League will have one, maybe two sides in the quarter-finals. Which is an improvement on last season, when no Premier League teams made it through, but nothing like the period from 2007 to 2009 when, three seasons running, three of the four semi-finalists were based in England.

The decline of those years of dominance has prompted much hand-wringing in England and no little glee elsewhere in Europe.

But is the Premier League really in decline? For each club a specific case can be made to explain away disappointing performances.

City, as a relative newcomer to the Champions League, have a low coefficient which means they are seeded lower than their actual ability; that in turn led them to be drawn with Bayern Munich and so they finished second in their group, meaning they faced a group-winner in the last 16. They then got one of the harder draws, meeting Barcelona, who they were matching before the game was turned by an unfortunate bounce, a superb pass from Andres Iniesta and a moment of rash defending that brought a penalty and a red card.

Arsenal made a mess of things late when away to Napoli and Borussia Dortmund scored a last-gasp goal to push Arsene Wenger’s side into second place in the group, after which they drew the reigning European champions, Bayern, who are well on their way to establishing themselves as one of the greatest teams ever seen.

United, meanwhile, have their own problems to do with the succession to Sir Alex Ferguson.

Of course, similar excuses were made last year and the majority of countries could probably make similar arguments about individual moments of ill-fortune or particular reasons why certain clubs have fallen flat.

But here’s the nub: it doesn’t matter.

It doesn’t matter because, although England might fall from second to third in the coefficient table, that still permits it four teams in the Champions League. The gap to Italy in fourth is so vast that it would take years of English failure and years of Italian achievement to close it.

But most of all it doesn’t matter because the flaws that make the best English sides vulnerable in Europe has created the most fascinating title race in years.

Even now, with 11 games to go, four teams are locked within four points at the top of the table – and one of them, Liverpool, did not qualify for any European competition at all this season.

Compare that to Europe’s other four major leagues: 16 points separate first from fourth in Spain and France, 21 in Germany and Italy. And consider how poorly Germany’s third and fourth sides fared in their last-16 ties, losing by an aggregate 10-1. At home.

That’s just one metric and in itself it means little, but it does highlight a wider issue: which is better, to have one or two super clubs who dominate everything, play to an extremely high standard and have a good chance of winning the Champions League? Or to have a handful of good-but-not-brilliant clubs who make the domestic league title race enthralling but struggle to impose themselves in Europe?

Would you sacrifice a little quality among the very best side for more competitiveness?

There’s no right answer; to a large degree it’s a matter of personal preference. But with that in mind, it is worth considering the other major trend of the last 16 so far, which is the almost complete domination of the sides who topped their groups: six won away, Chelsea drew and only United lost.

The suggestion is that process that has been seen across domestic leagues is beginning to happen in continental competition: the best are moving away from the rest, becoming an unchallengeable elite whose position is reinforced by the economic structures of European football.

The consequences of that can be seen in the fact that five of the eight ties feel over before the second leg.

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