Chelsea, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich will advance – The National’s Uefa Champions League predictions

Arsenal and Juventus may find path to the Uefa Chamopions League quarter-finals much more difficult against Monaco and Borussia Dortmund, writes Ian Hawkey.

As the last-16 ties begin, the path to the Uefa Champions League quarter-finals for Luis Suarez and Barcelona will run through England and Manchester City, starting February 24. David Ramos / Getty ImShow more

Ahead of the return of the Uefa Champions League, Ian Hawkey looks at the eight two-leg, last-16 ties that begin this week and predicts who will progress to the quarter-finals.

Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea

First leg, tomorrow; second leg, March 11

In the spotlight David Luiz, whose move from Chelsea for €60 million (Dh251m) made him the costliest defender. "He wasn't first-choice in defence for us," Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho said.

You again In last year's quarters, PSG beat Chelsea 3-1 at home but lost out to a late goal, 2-0, in London.

What the locals say "Catastrophic!" French paper L'Equipe, after PSG let a 2-0 lead turn to 2-2 at home to Caen on Saturday, in which four players – Lucas Moura, Serge Aurier, Marquinhos and Yohan Cabaye – picked up injuries.

Forecast Chelsea draw away, advance with win in London.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayern Munich

First leg, tomorrow; second leg, March 11

The build-up Shakhtar have been on the road for more than a month, playing preparation games during the long Ukraine winter break in Brazil, Spain and Denmark. Being away from home is normal. The conflict in eastern Ukraine means they never play at home. They will meet Bayern in Lviv, more than 1,200 kilometres from Donetsk.

The stat Nine. The goals scored in his five group-phase matches by Shakhtar's Luiz Adriano.

The Bayern bandwagon "We've got our game back," Pep Guardiola said after Saturday's 8-0 thrashing of Hamburg in the Bundesliga, a return to form after Bayern had dropped an unusual four points in their previous three games.

Forecast Bayern to win each leg.

Schalke v Real Madrid

First leg, Wednesday; second leg, March 10

The precedent Horrible memories of a year ago for Schalke, who hosted Madrid, and went 6-0 down before Klaas-Jan Huntelaar scored a super goal in injury time. It finished 9-2 on aggregate.

Rotation or repetition? Schalke's Italian coach, Roberto di Matteo, favours systematically resting players, tinkering with his starting XI. Madrid's Italian coach, Carlo Ancelotti, is very different: he has an established first XI and only injuries alter it. His problem is Madrid have several injuries.

Keep an eye on the home keeper Schalke have used three goalkeepers already in 2015. Timon Wellenreuther and Fabian Giefer stand by if first-choice Ralf Fahrmann does not recover fitness.

Forecast Madrid to win both legs.

Basel v Porto

First leg, Wednesday; second leg, March 10

Key battle Porto's Colombian striker, Jackson Martinez has 12 goals from his past 13 games. Basel must contain him without suspended central defender Fabian Schar; veteran Walter Samuel, 36, may step in.

Coach with pedigree Porto's Julen Lopetegui is one of five coaches in the competition who were colleagues at Barcelona in 1996/97: Laurent Blanc (PSG), Pep Guardiola (Bayern) and Luis Enrique (Barcelona) were Lopetegui's teammates, while Jose Mourinho (Chelsea) was on the Camp Nou coaching staff.

Porto goal "We have to show the same courage and ambition we did in the group phase," said Paulo Sousa, the coach who steered Basel above Liverpool to qualify for the knockouts.

Forecast Draw in Switzerland, a Porto win at the Dragao.

Manchester City v Barcelona

First leg, February 24; second leg, March 18

The question Which Luis Suarez turns up in Lancashire, his former home? The prolific striker of last season's Premier League, or the guy who found goals strangely hard to come by in his first five months with ­Barcelona?

Ivorian towers Yaya Toure and Wilfried Bony, back from the African Cup of Nations, gold medals in hand, can lift City. They have motivations, Toure to prove his development as a match winner since leaving Barcelona, Bony, that he has true Champions League calibre.

Keep an eye on Compatriots Javi Mascherano and Sergio Aguero: a clever man-marker versus a slippery, clever striker.

Forecast Barcelona to win both legs.

Arsenal v Monaco

First leg, February 25; second leg, March 17

A purist's lost legacy Arsene Wenger's Monaco years, in the early 1990s, were the making of him as a top-class coach, establishing his attractive brand of football. He may not feel too much affection for the crabby, conservative style of the current Monaco.

Pantomime villain Monaco's Dimitar Berbatov spent his peak days at Tottenham, Arsenal's rivals.

He will be booed in London. Being Berbatov, he will be cool with that.

Standout stat Monaco topped their first-phase group and scored four goals in their six matches. Arsenal finished second in theirs and scored 15.

Forecast Arsenal to edge a tight tie.

Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid

First leg, February 25; second leg, March 17

The question Have last year's runners-up the momentum to go a step further? Why not? Atletico remain as feisty, fit and competitive as 12 months ago, and may have more depth.

Danger man Atletico's speedy Antoine Griezmann has had a brilliant start to 2015, perhaps aware that Fernando Torres's arrival puts some pressure on his position.

Red alert Atletico are pugnacious. So is Leverkusen's teak-tough defender Emir Spahic. Expect grappling, protesting and finger-pointing, especially at set pieces.

Forecast Atletico win away, draw at home.

Juventus v Dortmund

First leg, February 24; second leg, March 18

Domestic divergence At the beginning of 2015, Juventus stood clear at the top of Serie A; Dortmund were bottom of the Bundesliga. In European terms, their form line is the opposite: the Germans were Champions League finalists and quarter-finalists the past two years; in 2013/14, Juve fell at the group stage.

Man with a motive Ciro Immobile, top scorer in last season's Serie A, joined Dortmund last summer from Torino, choosing Germany over Italy. He would like to show he has coped with the move, that it was a wise one.

Previously Dortmund shocked Juventus in the 1997 Champions League final, beating the title-holders 3-1 in ­Munich.

Forecast Juventus to come out on top, just.

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