As the third round of Asian qualifying reaches its crunch stage, there are a variety of permutations facing Paulo Bento’s UAE side.
By the time they kick off against North Korea in Riyadh on Tuesday night, they will know whether they still stand a chance of qualifying automatically for the 2026 World Cup.
Because of the way the kick off times are staggered on the last day of the penultimate window of Asian qualifying round three, the fixture might be rendered academic.
Each of the six sides has three matches remaining in the pool. The top two teams qualify directly for the main event in the United States, Canada and Mexico in two years’ time.
The UAE are bidding to make it to the World Cup for a second time. They were knocked out in the group phase in Italy back in 1990.
If they don’t finish in the top two in the group, there is still a chance to make it. The third and fourth placed teams enter a complicated play-off system, which could involve fixtures against sides from Africa, the Caribbean, and Oceania.
Their chances are hanging by a thread, but there is still a possibility of them making it through in the top two.
The permutations
If Iran beat Uzbekistan and the UAE beat North Korea on Tuesday, then the Iranians will qualify for the World Cup as group winners.
The UAE would then be within three points of the Uzbeks in second place, and they host them in the penultimate match in June.
If the national team were to win that fixture, then it would be likely a win in their final match – away in Kyrgyzstan – would give them a place at the World Cup.
That would all depend on Qatar failing to take maximum points from their final matches – against Kyrgyzstan, Iran and Uzbekistan – or at least failing to advance their goal difference past the UAE’s.
The national team are currently nine goals better off than Qatar, and two better than the Uzbeks.
However, if Iran and Uzbekistan draw in Tehran, and the UAE beat North Korea, then the Uzbeks would hold a four-point buffer over the national team going into the final two matches in June.
As such, the UAE could leapfrog them if they beat Uzbekistan at home, then win in Kyrgyzstan, so long as the Uzbeks do not beat Qatar in their final game.
If Uzbekistan beat Iran, those two sides will each have a nine-point advantage over the UAE. That would as good as rule the national team out of a top-two finish. They would have to win all their remaining three games, and hope Iran and the Uzbeks lost all theirs.
The form
Paulo Bento, the UAE coach, might rightly recognise that all the permutations will count for nothing unless the national team get their own act together.
Having enjoyed one of the finest nights in the history of UAE football the last time they played a World Cup qualifier, back in November, they returned to earth with a thud on Thursday.
They had signed off their campaign in 2024 with a thrilling 5-0 win over neighbours Qatar in Abu Dhabi. It was a performance full of joy, with Fabio De Lima, the Al Wasl playmaker, scoring four goals to start the party.
Then, four months later and with an underwhelming Gulf Cup performance in between, they were a shadow of themselves in Tehran last Thursday.
Strikingly, De Lima did not even make the starting line-up, in a rejigged, cautious set up by Bento.
Most things that could go wrong, did. It was cold and rainy. One of the floodlights failed, leading to a 29-minute hold up in play.
Then one of the players with which the UAE team are best acquainted – Shabab Al Ahli striker Sardar Azmoun – headed Iran into the lead, and the away side failed to recover.
They eventually subsided 2-0, and it could have been more, had the hosts been more clinical.
Whether Bento retains the five-man backline ploy for the game against North Korea, on neutral territory at the Prince Faisal Bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh, remains to be seen.
Given the number of bodies present at the back, it was a worryingly leaky defensive effort against the Iranians.
What is certain is the national team will need to be far sharper than they were when they hosted the North Koreans in Al Ain earlier in the group.
That draw, characterised by a high energy display by the unheralded visitors, was a costly one for the national team. The two points they dropped would have been very handy now that the pool is reaching its business stage.
It must be hoped they can get back the spirit of last November smartly in Riyadh. Surely a good starting point would be to restore De Lima, who did appear as a late sub in Tehran, to the starting XI.