F1 analysis: Fortune favours Rosberg but Hamilton has time to strike back in title race

Graham Caygill provides his analysis from the Formula One Malaysian Grand Prix as Nico Rosberg rides his luck to take control of the title race.

Nico Rosberg's battling third place finish, combined with Lewis Hamilton's retirement, puts the German in control of the drivers' championship title race. Clive Mason / Getty Images)

Nico Rosberg must have feared it was not going to be his day when he was facing the wrong way after only 10 seconds of the Malaysian Grand Prix.

He had been hit from behind by Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari heading into the first corner, and was spun around.

The first element of fortune to go Rosberg’s way was that his car escaped damage in the incident and he was able to rejoin the race, albeit last of the remaining 21 runners, with Vettel stopping as a result of the contact. The Ferrari man would later receive a three-place grid penalty for next weekend’s Japanese Grand Prix as punishment from the race stewards.

But as he completed the first lap, Rosberg faced scoring no points, while Hamilton was out in front and on for 25 points that would have transformed the title fight.

Rosberg led by eight points going into the race, but as he faced the prospect of trying to fight his way back through the field, Hamilton was effectively leading the championship by 17 points.

The rest of the afternoon was about damage limitation for Rosberg.

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By Lap 41 of the 56-lap race he had done a good job, moving up to fourth, thanks to a mixture of the pace of his Mercedes and some good overtaking.

Hamilton and the Red Bull Racing cars of Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen were a long way down the road.

Losing 13 points to his teammate, rather than 25, and leaving the Sepang circuit only five points behind, was not a bad outcome — given how things looked on the opening lap.

It could have been a lot worse, but then Rosberg’s second slice of fortune came his way.

Hamilton had a 22-second lead over Ricciardo as he began his 42nd lap of the afternoon, but he slowed with smoke and flames coming out of the back of his Mercedes power unit.

The triple world champion cut a forlorn figure as he walked away from his car, the roles now well and truly reversed with Rosberg in a position to make the gains.

Although too far behind Ricciardo and Verstappen to fight for victory, Rosberg was on track for third and 15 points.

He still had some work to do, however, as race stewards had given him a 10-second time penalty, to be added to his race result, for a clumsy passing move on Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen, which had led to contact between the pair.

Rosberg had the speed needed to build the gap to finish ahead of fourth-placed Raikkonen, despite his punishment.

While the attention, rightly, was largely on race winner Ricciardo post-race, it ended up being a great day for the man standing on the bottom step of the podium.

If Rosberg does leave Yas Marina Circuit after the Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on November 27 as world champion, this will be seen as one of the most defining moments.

Instead of losing ground to Hamilton on a weekend when he had been comprehensively outperformed by the Briton on raw pace, he has actually increased his advantage.

Instead of a 17 point deficit, as had been the prospect on Lap 1, Rosberg is now 23 ahead with five races, and a maximum 125 points left to be won.

Rosberg acknowledged it had been an afternoon of contrasting emotions for him even though it ended well for him in the end.

“Well, it doesn’t feel like a win because it’s only third place and today was a tough day — because after Turn One I thought it was finished,” he said. “Of course, I’m happy with the comeback; to get all the way back on the podium, I definitely didn’t think that was going to be possible.

“For Lewis, I’ve been in his position, I know how terrible it is in that moment, so I’m sure he’s totally gutted.”

The momentum continues to be with Rosberg. Three wins and a third place since the summer break have seen him enjoy a 42-point swing over Hamilton as he has gone from 19 behind to 23 ahead.

Hamilton’s destiny remains in his own hands in that if he wins the remaining five races he will be world champion, but he has little margin for error.

Rosberg has been a master of stonewalling any questions on the championship in recent weeks, but even he, behind closed doors, must be beginning to think it could be his year after the events in Sepang.

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