Richard Jolly breaks down the four teams in Group C of Euro 2016.
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There tend to be two guarantees where Germany are concerned: they will always find themselves in a potentially awkward group and they will always get their way out of it. Yet if the World Cup winners tend to be immune to shocks, Poland exacted a surprise defeat on them in qualifying. Both progressed to France and their reunion adds intrigue to this pool. So does the meeting of the Euro 2012 co-hosts. Neither Poland nor Ukraine reached the knockout stages in their home countries four years ago. The Poles, in particular, are equipped to do better now and have the look of potential quarter-finalists, assuming they finish in the top two positions. Northern Ireland represent the rank outsiders, a team who had not qualified for a tournament since 1986 and a country with less than one-twentieth of the population of each of the others. They will do well to finish anywhere other than fourth. It would be a major surprise if Germany came anywhere below first.
Group C fixtures: (Kick-off times all UAE)
*Correction: Times earlier were incorrectly shown as an hour later.
• June 12: Poland v Northern Ireland, 8pm
• June 12: Germany v Ukraine, 11pm
• June 16: Ukraine v Northern Ireland, 8pm
• June 16: Germany v Poland, 11pm
• June 21: Northern Ireland v Poland, 8pm
• June 21: Ukraine v Poland, 8pm
• Predicted order of finish: Germany, Poland, Ukraine, Northern Ireland
GERMANY
The perennial nearly men ended an 18-year wait for a trophy in the World Cup two years ago. Perhaps understandably, the most consistent team in the international game then went through rare rocky periods. They have suffered six defeats since then, with the losses of both Philipp Lahm and Miroslav Klose to international retirement creating holes in Joachim Low’s squad. Midfield injuries to Ilkay Gundogan and Bastian Schweinsteiger have created further difficulties but Germany have more strength in depth and talent than virtually anyone else and a mentality that enables them to win games when it matters. Once again, they will be hard to stop.
• The Manager: Joachim Low
Will complete a decade in charge of Germany this summer. This is his fifth tournament. He has reached the semi-finals in each of the last four.
• Star player: Toni Kroos
With Gundogan out and Schweinsteiger having barely played since January, the stage is set for Kroos to become the dominant figure in the midfield. The Real Madrid playmaker may be paired with the experienced Sami Khedira, a favourite of Low’s, and will be charged with supplying Germany’s litany of attacking midfielders.
• Wild card: Mario Gotze
It may seem odd to brand a veteran of 50 caps and the scorer of the winner in the World Cup final a wild card, but Gotze has had a strange couple of years since his decisive strike in Rio de Janeiro. He has become a fringe figure at Bayern Munich. He could occupy any of four roles – as a false nine, a No 10, a winger or a substitute – for Low and it will be intriguing to see how he fares.
• Potential problem: The defence
In particular the full-back positions since Lahm’s retirement. Over the last couple of years, Germany have conceded at least two goals in a game to Argentina, Poland, Australia, Scotland and England.
NORTHERN IRELAND
Michael O’Neill’s side made history as the first team seeded fifth in a group to win it. In the process, a group ranked 129th in the world in 2012 ensured they will make a belated major tournament debut. Yet their task became still harder before it began with left-back and set-piece specialist Chris Brunt ruled out. Northern Ireland’s goals often come from corners and set pieces. It leaves them still more reliant on Kyle Lafferty, their top scorer in qualifying, and a defence with a healthy and impressive contingent of centre-backs.
• The Manager: Michael O’Neill
A former Northern Ireland international midfielder, he only won one of his first 18 games in charge before transforming their fortunes over the last two years.
• Star player: Kyle Lafferty
An underachiever at club level, the target man has only scored five goals for his three clubs since 2014, but he managed seven in competitive games for his country. His temperament has been a problem in the past, but O’Neill has channelled his aggression and Lafferty is now Northern Ireland’s second highest goalscorer.
• Wild card: Conor Washington
Four years ago, he was a postman playing non-league football. Now the England-born forward is a Northern Ireland international. His raw pace could make him a useful substitute or a partner for Lafferty. O’Neill has experimented with a 3-5-2 formation where they can play together.
• Potential problem: A lack of talent
Northern Ireland will field Championship, League One and Scottish Premier League players against Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid stars.
POLAND
This is Poland’s third consecutive European Championship. It is also 30 years since they reached the knockout stages of any major tournament. It is a fine chance to end that wait. Adam Nawalka’s team qualified in fine fashion, losing only one of their 10 matches, and that was away in Germany, and have been in fine form in friendlies. They have been in free-scoring mood and, with Robert Lewandowski having had the best season of his career, look one of the more potent teams in France.
• The manager: Adam Nawalka
The former Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze manager has proved an inspired appointment since he got the job in 2013.
• Star player: Robert Lewandowski
Equalled David Healy’s record of 13 goals in a European Championship qualifying campaign. The striker has taken over the captaincy of the national team from Jakub Blaszczykowski. Perhaps the best out-and-out finisher in Europe, he should top 50 goals this season for club and country.
• Wild card: Arkadiusz Milik
The 22-year-old striker is the brightest light of Poland’s young generation and has emerged as Lewandowski’s sidekick. The Ajax forward opened the scoring in the win over Germany and is averaging almost a goal every other game for his country.
• Potential problem: The defence
Poland conceded 10 goals in qualifying and friendlies have offered more evidence that they do not exactly have a watertight rearguard.
UKRAINE
Ukraine were not particularly impressive qualifiers, taking only one point from Slovakia as they came third in Group C and required a play-off to book their spot in France. Their hopes of faring better in the tournament itself rest on their two star players, wingers Yevhen Konoplyanka and Andriy Yarmolenko. Reaching the last 16 would represent a boost to a country wracked by war but, after an opening meeting with Germany, Ukraine will need to capitalise on their final two group games.
• The manager: Mykhaylo Fomenko
An unglamorous choice, after Ukraine had failed to hire Harry Redknapp and Sven-Goran Eriksson, but an effective one with an excellent record.
• Star player: Andriy Yarmolenko
Much the top scorer in this squad, the right winger is equally capable of dribbling and shooting with great effectiveness. Long tipped to leave Dynamo Kiev, a fine tournament could put him in the shop window. Ukraine will play to his strengths, and those of Konoplyanka on the opposite flank.
• Wild card: Artem Kravets
In a squad desperately short of prolific forwards, Kravets is likely to understudy first-choice forward Roman Zozulya. Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko are likelier scorers than either but if the lively Kravets can recapture the form he showed for Dynamo Kiev last season, he could prove a valuable replacement.
• Potential problem: A lack of pace
This is an ageing squad with 37-year-old captain Anatoliy Tymoshchuk, 36-year-old left-back Vyacheslav Shevchuk and 34-year-old midfielder Ruslan Rotan. Ukraine could be outrun.