World Test Championship: How India and other contenders can qualify for final

Top two teams at end of current cycle will contest title match at Lord's next year

India's Ravichandran Ashwin acknowledges the crowd after picking up his fifth wicket on Day 4 of the first Test against Bangladesh in Chennai on Sunday, September 22, 2024. AP

Bangladesh's Hasan Mahmud is bowled by Ravindra Jadeja. AFP

India captain Rohit Sharma, centre, Virat Kohl celebrate after winning the first Test by 280 runs. AP

Bangladesh captain Najmul Hossain Shanto scored a valiant fifty. AP

India's Ravindra Jadeja, centre, celebrates after taking the wicket of Bangladesh's Litton Das. AFP

Bangladesh's Litton Das was dismissed cheaply on Sunday. AFP

It is the season of Test cricket, and for long-time cricket fans it can’t get any better.

The twists and turns of a single Test often outnumber the dramatic moments of entire white-ball tournaments. And while T20 and franchise tournaments take up more and more space in the calendar each year, Test cricket even in a reduced capacity provides immense entertainment.

In a way, it is good that almost all teams are playing Test cricket right now, even if only to complete their quota of matches for this cycle of the World Test Championship.

Realistically speaking, only a handful of sides have a genuine shot at qualifying for the final at Lord’s in June of next year. The way the WTC is structured, points are awarded to percentage points won in each series. Therefore many bilateral series now only have two Tests, as that is what a majority of cricket boards can afford to play.

While we are seeing fewer Test matches, every game has far greater significance. A washout, tense draw or even points deduction for slow overrate can ruin the chances of a team even if they have lost only a few matches.

As things stand, India and Australia have the best chance of making it to the final as they are at the top of the WTC standings.

They are the only two teams who have won over 50 per cent of the points on offer in the current Test cycle. There are other sides hovering around the 50 per cent mark who have a decent shot at making it to the top two.

Here, we analyse the chances of the main teams who can make it to the WTC final next year.

Note that each Test win is worth 12 points, a draw gets a team 4 points. Points are deducted for slow over rates.

India

Results: 10 matches, 7 wins, 2 defeats, 1 draw, 2 points deducted, 86 points, 71.67% points

Series remaining: v Bangladesh at home leading 1-0 in two-match series; v New Zealand 3 Tests at home; v Australia 5 Tests away

India qualified for the last two championship finals and look good to make it to Lord’s next year as well. They are expected to dominate Tests at home against Bangladesh and New Zealand, and only need to avoid complete capitulation in Australia to qualify for the final. The fact they have won the last two series Down Under should boost their chances. Four more wins and a few draws should see them make the cut.

Australia

Results: 12 matches, 8 wins, 3 defeats, 1 draw, 10 points deducted, 90 points, 62.50% points

Series remaining: v India 5 Tests at home; v Sri Lanka 2 Tests away

The Aussies can’t afford this Border-Gavaskar Trophy to go the same way as the recent ones where India prevailed both home and away. A series defeat here will leave them with hardly any room to manoeuvre, especially since Sri Lanka have turned their home into a fortress of late.

A lot will depend on whether India pacer Mohammad Shami recovers in time to partner Jasprit Bumrah. If not, the Aussies could hold the edge over Rohit Sharma's team over five Tests.

Sri Lanka

Results: 8 matches, 4 wins, 4 defeats, 48 points, 50% points

Series remaining: v New Zealand at home leading 1-0 in two-match series; v South Africa 2 Tests away; v Australia 2 Tests at home

The islanders have found fresh impetus after the appointment of Sanath Jayasuriya as their coach. Under him, the Sri Lankans blanked a full-strength Indian team in a home ODI series last month, fought well during the Test tour of England where they won the third Test at The Oval and also overpowered New Zealand in the first Test at Galle in the current series.

They look too strong for New Zealand and remain the only Asian team to win a Test series in South Africa. Two Tests at home against the Aussies, who don’t have the best record against spin, should also fill them with confidence.

England

Results: 16 Tests, 8 wins, 7 defeats, 1 draw, 19 points deducted, 81 points, 42.19% points

Series remaining: v Pak 3 Tests away; v New Zealand 3 Tests away

Had it not been for the staggering 19 points deduced for slow over rate, England would have been much higher in the table and in with a genuine chance of making it to the final. But, even now, they are in a position to finish the cycle on a high against teams that are genuinely vulnerable.

The three-match series in Pakistan offers England the best chance of boosting their points situation while they will be favourites to win in New Zealand as well. If they avoid further penalties, they could sneak closer to the 60% mark and have a decent shot at the final.

South Africa

Results: 6 Tests, 2 wins, 3 defeats, 1 draw, 28 points, 38.89% points

Series remaining: v Bangladesh 2 Tests away; v Sri Lanka 2 Tests at home; v Pakistan 2 Tests at home

They are placed lower in the table but have played fewer matches. The Proteas have an excellent opportunity to improve their situation, provided they emerge from the tricky tour of Bangladesh without too much damage, and collect maximum points at home against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, which is a distinct possibility.

It might mean taking a gamble in their home Tests on lightning fast pitches, but South Africa can't afford any draws at this stage.