Arsenal will win Premier League, Leicester City will finish third to clinch Uefa Champions League spot — Richard Jolly predicts where the top six will end up at the end of the 2015/16 season.
Also see: Richard Jolly's burning Premier League questions at the halfway point
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Leicester City
Extraordinary. Leicester have gone from a flash in the pan to become the most consistent team in the division. Jamie Vardy has the momentum to appear unstoppable and Riyad Mahrez looks a genuinely high-class player. Those two have 28 league goals between them: only three other teams have more. Leicester’s last four matches were supposed to bring them back to earth, but instead they have taken 10 points to soar still higher. They confound expectations at every turn and, if there are legitimate questions if they possess enough strength in depth, if they can carry on winning without keeping many clean sheets and what they will do when Vardy’s golden run ends, they have offered eloquent answers thus far. They have showed more consistency and longevity than any previous Premier League surprise package since Ipswich in 2000/01. If others carry on dropping points, perhaps the impossible will become possible.
Player of the Season: Mahrez. Vardy set a Premier League record by scoring in 11 consecutive games but the Algerian's season, with 13 goals and seven assists, has been still more productive.
Prediction: Third — and direct entry into the Uefa Champions League
Arsenal
It felt the most Arsenal-esque start to a season. Tipped for the title, they duly lost at home to West Ham United on the opening day with Petr Cech, supposedly the final piece in the jigsaw, erring. Yet their response has been impressive. Hints of frailty remain and injuries are a constant, yet Arsenal possess more character than is often acknowledged. They have won eight of their last 11 league games, aided by colossal contributions from Cech, Olivier Giroud, Mesut Ozil and Laurent Koscielny, and unexpected ones from Joel Campbell and Mathieu Flamini. They could still do with getting Francis Coquelin fit again and seeing Alexis Sanchez return to his superb form from last season, and may benefit if they are knocked out of the Champions League. They have difficult away games in the second half of the season but will not get a better chance to win the title for the first time since 2004.
Player of the Season: Ozil. To have 15 assists by Christmas is remarkable. He is closing in on Thierry Henry's record of 20 and has defied his critics by exerting an influence in consistent and classy fashion.
Prediction: Champions — the long wait might finally end
Manchester City
It all began so well. Five wins and five clean sheets suggested it could be a procession to the title. What has followed has been far less welcome. City have lost five of their last 12 matches. They have only scored once away from home since September. Their reliance on Sergio Aguero and Vincent Kompany has been exposed as both talismen have suffered injury problems. Signings Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling have offered goals and invention on the flanks and David Silva remains a class act but, though Joe Hart has had a fine season, the fallibility of Eliaquim Mangala, Nicolas Otamendi and Martin Demichelis at centre-back is a major concern. As the spectre of Pep Guardiola looms large over him, Manuel Pellegrini’s decision-making has been decidedly mixed. But City have come from behind in two of the last four title races and they will have to again.
Player of the Season: Kompany. He has played eight games and City have only conceded one goal, and even that was because of a rare Hart error. They have let in 18 in the nine the Belgian missed.
Prediction: Runners-up — perhaps in a title race they really ought to win
Tottenham Hotspur
Developing faster than expected. A 14-game unbeaten run was their best in the top flight for 30 years and it shows the spirit in Mauricio Pochettino’s team that only Leicester have lost fewer games. There have been two keys to progress: bringing in Toby Alderweireld to form an effective, all Belgian centre-back partnership with Jan Vertonghen, securing a dramatic improvement in their defensive record; and the new-look midfield axis of Eric Dier and Dele Alli, a huge upgrade on Nabil Bentaleb and Ryan Mason. They still remain very reliant on Harry Kane’s goals, and an injury to him could be devastating, but others, like the revitalised Mousa Dembele and Erik Lamela, are delivering rather more. But their Europa League commitments could come at a cost and April, featuring a tough fixture list, looks pivotal. Yet while they need to turn more draws into wins, this could be a wonderful opportunity to return to the Champions League.
Player of the Season: Alli. A revelation, whether as a No 10 or as a box-to-box midfielder. The teenager has come from League One to the top flight in a few months. He looks at home.
Prediction: Fifth — and another Champions League near miss
Manchester United
They feel a club descending into crisis, with a marked lack of goals, a team that is less than the sum of its parts and an increasingly unpopular manager. United’s fortunes may be best served by sacking Louis van Gaal and installing a manager who gives them more freedom in the final third. Yet they still have an excellent defensive record and, in David de Gea, the most talented goalkeeper in the division. Chris Smalling has continued to progress but, while Anthony Martial has showed glimpses of his huge potential, the problems lie in attack. Wayne Rooney’s decline has accelerated, Memphis Depay has flattered to deceive and Van Gaal never seems to fully trust Van Gaal. United are not as bad as recent performances suggest, nor as good as they should be, considering Van Gaal has spent £285 million (Dh1.56 billion), but a change at the top could prompt a change of fortunes.
Player of the Season: Smalling. Has had a remarkable 2015, considering how poor he had been for much of his United career. An authoritative figure who rarely has a bad game now.
Prediction: Fourth — but maybe under Jose Mourinho, not Van Gaal
Crystal Palace
Eyebrows were raised last week when Manuel Pellegrini described Palace, a club with a best Premier League finish of 10th, as title contenders but it illustrates the speed of their progress. In reality, it would be a major achievement for Alan Pardew’s team to retain their current position. They lack a top-class centre-forward and their only goal from a specialist striker was Connor Wickham’s penalty at Stoke, even if they possess a group of beguilingly quick and skilful wingers, spearheaded by Yannick Bolasie. Yohan Cabaye has lent class in central midfield and their defensive record is excellent. Their counter-attacking menace has given them the third best away record but they are too prone to home defeats, have too many tough games remaining at Selhurst Park and are not clinical enough to truly challenge. Yet the fact they are in the discussion is an indication of how far they have advanced.
Player of the Season: Cabaye. Excelled for Pardew at Newcastle and has done so again at Palace. The best-paid player in their history is showing why he is worth the money.
Prediction: Seventh — Might just be overhauled by Liverpool or Chelsea