Beyond the Headlines: What is left after decade of conflict in Yemen?

Ten years ago, on September 21, 2014, Yemen’s Houthi rebels took over the capital city of Sanaa from government rule. Months later, a Saudi-led coalition intervened to support the internationally recognised government and fight against the Houthis to restore territories taken over by the group.

In the years that followed, the country was essentially split into two: the Houthi-controlled north, and the south run by forces loyal to the government. During this time, presidents were ousted, cities were captured and recaptured, truces were breached and governing frameworks were rejected. About a quarter of a million people are believed to have been killed.

The war has created a multilateral crisis, with Yemenis struggling to access food, water, shelter and medicine. Diseases have spread and at least 18 million people need some sort of assistance to get by. After a decade of anguish and suffering, what sort of future will Yemenis inherit?

This week on Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher speaks to Abdulghani Al Iryani, senior specialist at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies, to discuss the key events that shaped the civil war and the prospects for peace in a very divided Yemen.

Below is the full transcript of this episode:

Nada AlTaher: About 10 years ago, on September 21 2014, Yemen’s Houthi rebels took control of the capital city of Sanaa. Months later, a Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen to support the internationally recognised government and fight against the Houthis to restore the territories the group took over.

In the years that followed, the country was essentially split in two: the north, controlled by the Houthis, where the majority of the population lives. And the south, run by forces loyal to the government.

The battle in Yemen took place not only on the ground, but also behind closed doors. Presidents were ousted, cities were captured and then recaptured, truces were breached and governing frameworks all rejected. And about 250,000 are believed to have been killed either directly or indirectly as a result of the war. But the reality is much more bleak, because the real figures and true scope of the war’s destruction are impossible to know.

In Yemen, a generation of children was born into a state of conflict. The war never seemed to end, until a moment in 2022 when the warring parties unofficially agreed to a de-facto ceasefire that, although it did not last, caused the violence to go down dramatically.

That doesn’t mean the suffering is over. For millions in Yemen, where a polycrisis means a struggle for food, water, shelter and medicine. At least 18 million people need some sort of assistance to get by.

Millions are also internally displaced. The economy is in tatters, pushing the majority of the population into poverty, and a compounded climate crisis has devastated agriculture, leaving Yemenis facing worsening food insecurity. And those who were able to return to their homes found their farms and houses had been turned into silent war zones, with mines ready to maim or kill at the slightest touch.

After a decade of anguish and suffering, what is left of Yemen in the wake of the war? And what future will Yemenis inherit?

This is Beyond the Headlines and I’m your host, Nada AlTaher. This week, we look at the roots of today’s divided Yemen. We reflect on the key events that shaped the civil war over the past decade and ask, what will it take to build a functional, dignified future for millions of Yemenis struggling for survival?

The rift between Yemen’s warring parties actually predates this conflict. I discuss this with Abdulghani Al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies.

Abdulghani, before we talk about the civil war, let's go back in time. Tension between the Houthis and the government actually date back to the early 2000s, with rebellions staged by the Houthis against the long-serving president Ali Abdullah Saleh back then. Tell us about the origins of this rift and how it led to the war today. And what was the final trigger for the Houthis to decide to take over Sanaa?

Abdulghani Al-Iryani: The Houthi movement is a reactionary movement that ascribes to an extreme subsect of Zaydism that believes only an imam, or one of the descendants of the Prophet, has the right to rule and that the world was created - heaven and Earth and people - to empower that imam. And therefore the origin of the conflict is really, in 1970, when the royalists lost the civil war that followed the 1962 republican revolution against the imam.

In 1970, there was a peace agreement between the royalists and the republicans, which forced the royalists to recognise the republic. And many of the leaders of the royalists joined a national unity government, but a faction, the most extreme, stayed out of the agreement. That faction is now what we call the Houthis.

NA: Yemen has basically been split into two now, with different warring parties controlling different governorates. What is the effect of this on Yemeni civilians who have been the greatest victims of this war, now in its 10th year? How has the split actually affected their lives and their access to basic things like electricity, health care and food?

AA: I have to give you the lay of the land. In 2014, the Houthis, who had been fighting the government in the north, managed to take over by allying themselves with the old regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh. They took over the capital and took over the institution of the Yemeni state, eventually forcing everyone else - the majority of the political factions - to flee Sanaa. Many ended up in different capitals around the region and some of them went to Aden.

The Houthis now control all the institutions of the state. And they represent a tiny minority of the people of Yemen. But they came to control the armed forces of the republic, the security apparatus, and therefore they controlled everything. So those people who are under the control of the Houthis still live under somewhat working institutions.

Those who are not under Houthi control are not oppressed like those living under the Houthis, but they don't have access to the institutions, to the organisations that provide basic services. So there is a serious crisis in terms of security, in terms of providing health care, providing electricity, etc.

And because the Houthis are so corrupt and so inconsiderate to the needs of the people, services are available, but only for those who can pay. The free health care and free education have gone. Electricity in the Houthi areas costs 20 times more than it used to. Basically, services are available for those who can pay and the rest of society is denied almost everything.

NA: Most Yemenis rely on food aid for survival. A lot of it comes through the port of Hodeidah. What can you tell us about the port of Hodeidah and how has the war actually shaped and affected the way that aid is brought in through it?

AA: There are three major ports in Yemen. There are two Hodeidah ports - one is for container traffic and for oil and fuel, the other is for foodstuff like cereals and grains and so on. The Houthis controlled both.

The third port is Aden and it's much smaller. It can provide maybe 20 per cent of the needs of the population. Therefore, the Hodeidah port and the Salif port, which is just 60km north of Hodeidah, provide for the bulk of the humanitarian and commercial needs of the people.

The port of Hodeidah has been bombed by Israel and two thirds of its capacity has been disabled. That causes problems in providing humanitarian assistance to the majority of the population. Another strike on the port of Hodeidah and port of Salif and people will starve.

NA: In the past decade, we've seen ceasefires fail again and again. We've also seen urgent warnings by humanitarian organisations about the catastrophic economic conditions, the famine, displacement, disease and the impact on children. But the violence continued. How has one of the world's worst humanitarian crises gone on this long?

AA: War usually creates profit opportunities for those who are engaged in it. I think the profit and the war economy have been the reason this war continued for the past 10 years and why it hasn't stopped. Those who are engaged in it are benefiting from it. Unfortunately, there hasn't been any effort from the international community or the UN to deal with this very critical issue of profiteering and the war economy.

And therefore, no matter what people say, that they have an interest in ending this war, they will not end it until the profit stream stops.

NA: There has been a period of relative calm since an unofficial truce was brokered a couple of years ago, but the war is not over. And now with the Houthis attacking vessels in the Red Sea over the war in Gaza, the chances of a true ceasefire seem even farther away. How have the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea actually affected the prospects for peace?

AA: Actually, contrary to conventional wisdom, I think they have increased the chances of peace. Prior to October 7, the Houthis and the Saudis had been negotiating to end the conflict between them, and not really ending the conflict in Yemen.

During the ceasefire, hostilities between the Saudis and the Houthis stopped, but hostilities between Yemenis did not. And if the Saudis step out of the conflict, the anti-Houthi camp will become weak.

If Yemenis, after Saudi Arabia exits the conflict, then hold negotiations, the Houthis will not give anything to the other side because of the extreme imbalance of power. Therefore, some parties in the anti-Houthi camp may surrender to the Houthis, but others, especially in the south, will never surrender. They cannot accept Houthi leadership, given how vicious the Houthis are, given the longs-tanding grievances of the south against control from Sanaa.

Given the fact the Houthis are so horrible in governance, their state would eventually collapse. It has no foundation economically and Yemen would be in something like the Somalia situation, where there are warlords controlling bits and pieces of the country.

The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea made it possible for people who call for a durable peace to point out that the Houthis are not just a Yemeni problem, they are a problem for the world. And therefore, you cannot allow them to control parts of Yemen to the exclusion of others. You cannot allow them to continue unchecked.

Attacking civilian ships is just not an acceptable international practice. And there's only one way to stop the Houthis from carrying out such practices, and that is to get them into a power-sharing agreement with other Yemeni parties that are moderate, responsible, would care about Yemen's standing internationally and would be able to stop the Houthis from carrying out such attacks.

NA: Can you give us your closing thoughts on what Yemen will look like in 10 years?

AA: Well, it's all up in the air. If we follow a narrow and straight path towards restoration of stability, Yemen will have restored its institutions and will have taken the first steps towards building its economy.

That narrow path requires two key prerequisites. The first is to address the imbalance of power between the government and the Houthis. The Houthis are now much more powerful than the government and therefore they will not enter into a power-sharing agreement.

The second is to have a unified, strategic stand by the coalition and by the international community in support of unifying the leadership of the government, so it can negotiate effectively with the Houthis and make a peace agreement a reality.

NA: That's it for Beyond the Headlines for this week. Follow our coverage on Yemen at TheNationalNews.com. This episode was produced by Ban Barkawi. Yasmeen Altaji is our assistant producer and Doaa Farid is our editor. And I’m your host, Nada AlTaher.