Uncertainty on the horizon

The grip of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP is slackening after Sunday’s election

A woman takes a pciture with the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after he cast his vote at a polling station in Istanbul. Tolga Bozoglu / EPA

After more than a decade of steadily consolidating power, Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan saw his plans to rewrite the country’s constitution hit a dramatic snag in Sunday’s elections. Mr Erdogan had gambled that his party, the AKP, would claim a two-thirds majority, allowing him to enhance the president’s privileges and executive power.

Instead, for the first time in 13 years, the AKP fell 17 seats short of achieving an overall majority in the Turkish parliament. The party’s share of the popular vote also declined by almost 10 per cent.

Few should be surprised by the anger of voters, especially considering the state of the country’s economy. After years of antagonising the Turkish public with insensitive reactions to tragedies like the Soma mining accident last year, harsh denunciations of public protests in Gezi Park and constructing an opulent presidential palace, Mr Erdogan appears to have pushed enough disgruntled citizens into the unlikely arms of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democracy Party, or HDP. A constellation of leftists, Kurds and disgruntled establishment liberals helped the HDP exceed the 10 per cent electoral threshold needed to enter parliament. A return of 13.1 per cent of the vote delivered 80 seats to the party in the 550-seat parliament.

The coming days will be full of uncertainty for Turkey as the AKP seeks to find a way through choppy political waters and form a coalition government. The party will need to dial down some of its more dictatorial tendencies in favour of conciliation. The dire state of the economy remains a pressing issue alongside many foreign policy challenges. The value of the country’s currency tumbled in early trading yesterday.

All eyes will be on prime minister Ahmed Davutoglu – a longtime supporter of Mr Erdogan – and whether he will use the election result to become a leader in his own right. One thing is for certain though: in Turkey, democracy has delivered results – even for the Kurds.