UK ballot will trouble the Middle East

Within months, three European countries will have held elections, with effects here

Posters of French presidential election candidates are seen as part of a campaign of "Solidarite Sida" in Paris. Joel Saget / AFP

By the end of September, Europe’s three most powerful countries will all have had elections: France, which begins next week, Germany in September, and now, with British prime minister Theresa May’s surprise announcement, the UK in June. Mrs May, at least, will be confident of a victory. But there are no guarantees and the results of these three elections will have a profound effect on the Middle East.

Britain’s will be the least momentous, if only because the result is expected. But the trade deals that Mrs May wanted to negotiate post-Brexit with the Middle East will be on pause until it is certain she will be prime minister. In January, the UK announced a Dh465 million deal with Turkey to build fighter jets. The prime minister has made no secret that she wants to conclude other deals with the Gulf states and India. But until she wins in June, those will have to wait.

In France, with the election still too close to call, the possibility of a victory for Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right party the National Front, will raise jitters across the Middle East. Although Ms Le Pen as president is unlikely, her anti-immigrant stance has already affected the way French Muslims, many of whom are Arabs, and Syrian refugees are perceived in the country.

But it is in Germany that the election will be most closely watched from the region. Germany is very much Europe’s powerhouse and its policy on issues like Syria’s refugees and its stance towards Turkey could have a profound effect on the situation on the ground. Angela Merkel is no longer as dominant as she was – her policy towards Syrian refugees has affected her standing in the country – and if she loses as chancellor, Germany will take a step into the unknown. Mrs Merkel has been leader for 12 years and is, more than any other European leader, a known quantity. Without her, Germany may decide to shut the door on refugees, or pursue a less stable relationship with Turkey – both of which could make the situation in Syria and the region more unstable.

When Mrs May fired the starting gun for a new election this week, she also provoked further uncertainty across the Middle East, which is watching where Europe goes next.