Several weeks into its Syrian air campaign, the US-led coalition has succeeded in disrupting weapons supplies to an armed group, bringing its offensive to a halt and pushing it to the brink of defeat.
That group is not ISIL, nor is it the Al Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat Al Nusra, or even one of the smaller bands of Islamist militants roaming around Syria that have fallen under the coalition's crosshairs. The real victim is the Free Syrian Army (FSA).
Since the launch of the campaign, FSA commanders say they have been forced to suspend more than 90 per cent of their operations so as not to interfere with coalition air strikes.
This has robbed the group of critical momentum in campaigns outside Damascus and in southern Syria, turning back advances and rendering nearly six months of military gains “wasted”.
FSA’s absence from the battlefield has proven to be a boon for Bashar Al Assad’s regime, which has seized the opportunity to retake several key rebel towns and large swathes of Aleppo.
As the US and its allies have redirected their military resources and energies to combating ISIL, they have reduced Syrian rebels to an afterthought.
Absorbed with its war against extremism, the international community has also abruptly abandoned this band of army defectors. As a result, funding for the FSA has been drying up.
The FSA leadership says they have received only 20 per cent of the $10 million (Dh36 million) aid pledged by western and Arab nations at the beginning of the year and 10 per cent of the promised light arms and ammunition.
The funding crisis forced the supreme military council in September to suspend fighters’ monthly salaries, prompting several battalions to raid villages and farms to stave off starvation.
Meanwhile, pledges by the Obama administration to “back and train moderate Syrian rebels” as the coalition’s main ground forces in its war against ISIL have turned out to be little more than vague promises and bold declarations.
The only help extended by the coalition – the training of 15,000 FSA fighters in heavy arms – has also done more harm than good.
FSA field commanders say the sudden withdrawal of thousands of fighters from the front lines in northern Syria for training in Saudi Arabia resulted in heavy losses for rebel forces outside Aleppo and Idlib. However, the greatest blow to the FSA has perhaps been dealt by the air strikes themselves.
Jabhat Al Nusra has been a main target of coalition missile strikes, with US and Arab fighter jets destroying Al Nusra positions outside of Aleppo, Idlib and along the Syrian-Turkish border.
By supporting the coalition and reportedly providing them with the much-needed military intelligence, the FSA has severed all ties with the better-funded Al Nusra, with which it had earlier carried out operations across the country.
This perceived act of betrayal has turned revolutionary brothers-in-arms into bitter rivals, with Al Nusra fighters routing their former allies in Idlib and northern Aleppo.
Devoid of funds and arms, grounded by air strikes and cut off from its allies, the FSA is left with few options.
This explains why more than 400 FSA fighters have reportedly defected to Al Nusra and ISIL since the air strikes began.
Support is growing within the supreme military council for disbanding the FSA as early as next month should the international community fail to follow through on its aid pledges. The effect of FSA’s demise will be felt beyond Syrian borders.
By dissolving the group, the coalition will not only lose a key ally, but it will lose the sole moderate force capable of maintaining stability in Syria should the aerial campaign succeed. That would be a loss no amount of air power can compensate.
Taylor Luck is an Amman-based political analyst and journalist