The regional-international anti-ISIL coalition, in which Iran and Russia don’t have a direct role, is going to be incomplete and might involve a few risks, cautioned Areeb Al Rantawi in an opinion piece in the Jordanian daily Addustoor.
The isolation of Russia and Iran, along with Syria and Hizbollah, might be an objective or a side effect of this alliance, which will cause two cold wars to mix: the international cold war (Washington-Moscow) over Ukraine and the regional cold war (Tehran-Riyadh) because of the sectarian divide and war of axes.
The toppling of the Syrian regime might be a second goal for this alliance. Moscow has warned of expanding operations against ISIL to include Syrian targets, amid reports that some countries joining the US-led fight against the terrorist group are seeking to build a third military force to combat both of ISIL and the Al Assad regime.
The third risk created by the coalition could be to push for normalisation of relations between the “Arab moderate camp” and Israel on the pretext of fighting a common threat. The US never misses a chance to promote Israel, and Washington has reportedly called for officially including Israel to the anti-ISIL coalition, amid Arab reservations and suggestions of a covert participation.
Should these anti-terrorism efforts seek goals other than destroying ISIL, the West and “moderate Arab countries” would sow the seeds of a new wave of conflicts between regional players, causing the entire region to slide into decades-long wars instead of winning a decisive fight against ISIL in three years as the US has estimated.
The writer remarked that Washington is asking Arabs to put their disputes aside and focus on the war on ISIL. It is also asking Arabs and Israel to disregard the Palestinian cause and unite in the fight against the terrorist organisation. But it has not asked Arabs and Iranians to set aside their disputes- which are less serious than those Arabs have with Israel, and work together against terrorism.
In the same vein, the London-based Al Quds Al Arabi wrote in its Thursday’s editorial that many challenges await the US-led campaign against ISIL. President Obama is trying to convince Americans of a new war in Iraq without a specific timeframe or clear tools for success, let alone the fact that he was elected president on a pledge to get the US out of the quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Despite public support in the US for a fight against ISIL, Americans do not want to be “dragged” into a long war once again. This support is likely to swiftly wane especially in the event of failure to achieve a quick success or if there are American casualties.
President Obama has to explain why he does not intend to strike ISIL in Syria although military analysts have warned that the restriction of an air strike to Iraq will force the organisation to cross the borders with Syria, where the capital of its self-proclaimed caliphate exists and where it can continue to grow. This also runs counter to Mr Obama’s vow to go after extremists who hurt Americans “wherever they are”.
Moreover, building a regional and global coalition won’t be an easy task. This applies even to the US’s closest allies. A Turkish paper reported on Wednesday that the US would use Incirlik Air Base only for humanitarian aid, and that Turkey will assist in intelligence.
Nor is it likely that Egypt will send any troops to Iraq at this point although it will provide the US with logistical assistance to launch its strike. On the other hand, it is hard to believe that there will be no US-Iranian military cooperation in the looming war. In fact, a secret agreement to beat ISIL between the US and the Syrian regime is not unlikely.
Zuhair Qusaibati noted in the London-based newspaper Al Hayat that Russia has complained about the “non-inclusiveness” of the US-Arab talks in Jeddah to coordinate a military strategy against ISIL. This, the writer observed, is indicative of their concern about being isolated by the coalition.
Iranians have doubted the intent of Mr Obama to fight that war but at the same time, they must be hoping he does that and clears Iraq of extremists and hands it over to them on a silver platter anew. Iran is also attempting to maximise pressure through Houthis on Sanaa in a bid to use its influence there to have President Hadi stay in power in a transitional period.
Amid suspicious roles by Israel and Iran, there are growing concerns among the Syrian opposition about them being sold again, particularly if the Syrian regime deems it an opportune time to launch a sweeping attack on the Syrian rebels while western attacks target ISIL in the Syrian territory.
Translated by Abdelhafid Ezzouitni
AEzzouitni@thenational.ae