The election season has only just begun and for those who have a consuming passion for presidential politics, the 2016 cycle promises to be a delight. A few months back, pundits were writing about the likelihood of a Hillary Clinton-Jeb Bush contest. But while Mrs Clinton may have little trouble winning the Democratic nomination, should she decide to run, the Republican party contest is shaping up as a regular free-for-all.
The polls are showing that Mrs Clinton is the strongest in her party. Some say that she is the only Democrat who can enable the party to hold on to the White House. Worries are expressed about her “likeability” and her positions on various issues, but these concerns fade when she is compared with any likely opponents.
The only Democrat who might be a serious challenger to Mrs Clinton is Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren. She has a powerful, progressive and populist message. But she has insisted that she won’t run against Mrs Clinton.
Even so, Mrs Clinton will face challenges from her party’s liberal wing. The donors, activists and staff that make up what is called the Clinton machine should help her emerge victorious. In addition to her experience, she has, of course, the added asset of a husband who remains one of the most beloved figures in the Democratic Party, and the fact that her very candidacy will be seen as a breakthrough for the nation.
Democrats want to win, and with a resume that includes being first lady, senator and secretary of state, Mrs Clinton is seen as a hands down winner – if she runs. All signs indicate that she will. Her supporters have already built a national network of millions of donors and she has assembled an all-star team of campaign professionals.
Meanwhile, the Republicans suffer from an abundance of candidates. Here are some of those who have already taken steps towards mounting a campaign or are hinting that they will: former Florida governor Jeb Bush; former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee; New Jersey governor Chris Christie; Wisconsin governor Scott Walker; former Texas governor Rick Perry; and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. They are joined by senators Rand Paul (Kentucky), Mario Rubio (Florida), Lindsay Graham (South Carolina) and Ted Cruz (Texas). Add to this list: former New York governor George Pataki, surgeon Dr Ben Carson and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. The contest is wide open, with a glut of candidates representing the various wings of the Republican party. And there lies the problem. With too many candidates competing for support from the same groups of donors and voters, the race could get ugly very quickly.
Until Friday, when he decided against yet another run for president, Mitt Romney had a small lead largely due to name recognition from his failed 2012 bid. The other serious contenders (Bush, Christie, Walker, Paul, Cruz and Rubio) are bunched together. What’s interesting is that the strengths of many of the leading candidates are also their weaknesses.
Though Mr Bush is seen as the brighter and more capable son of former president George H Bush, the country is said to be suffering from “Bush fatigue” and so the dynastic connection could prove to be a liability. Mr Christie has a compelling personality, but this sometimes means his brashness gets him into trouble.
Rand Paul inherits his father’s fervent libertarian following, but with every attempt that he makes to distance himself from his father’s positions, some feel that he has lost his clarity. Mr Cruz is known as a brilliant debater and a cunning self-promoter who knows how to play to a crowd and get headlines. But he has alienated many colleagues who see him as more of an irritant than a leader.
This leaves Scott Walker. Though not well known nationally, he is a solid conservative who could be the Republican “dark-horse” candidate. But he is less well known than the other “establishment” candidates (Bush and Christie) and the “social conservative” ones (Huckabee, Cruz, and Santorum) and is therefore, at a disadvantage in the early race for money and supporters.
In addition to struggling to define themselves in a large field, the Republican candidates must contend with the problem posed by the hardline elements of their party. A combination of Tea Party activists, anti-immigration crusaders and social conservatives from the Christian right will play a dominant role in the early Republican contests.
Eventually, of course, whoever wins the Republican nomination will have a handsome campaign war-chest for the 2016 election. But to get there they must first run the gamut of the primaries hoping to emerge unscathed and still electable.
James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute
On Twitter: @aaiusa