If the United States and Russia do not see that Al Qaeda’s main Syrian franchise is benefiting from the peace process, they should look again. In recent months, Jabhat Al Nusra has led a number of battles against the forces of Bashar Al Assad in the north, while poorly-executed ceasefires are causing people to question the efficiency of nationalist forces.
The reactions of some Syrians in the opposition towards the regime losses, especially in the context of the government’s violations of the recent truces, were captured by one activist’s Facebook post: “Some of us take to the streets to protest against Jabhat Al Nusra and demand that it breaks away from Al Qaeda,” he wrote. “Had jihadist groups like Jabhat Al Nusra done everything we wanted them to do, the only place in which we could raise our revolution’s flag today would be in Taksim Square in Turkey.”
For Jabhat Al Nusra, the gains against the regime do not have to hold. Mr Al Assad can retake the areas, but the fact that it is battling the regime while other forces stand by watching weakens the latter’s stance in the eyes of some Syrians. Jabhat Al Nusra has even produced footage of its recent operations using drones, including an ambush against a foreign fighter, the blowing up of a Baath party building and the storming of a government base in Aleppo.
Jabhat Al Nusra announced over the weekend that they had captured or killed dozens of pro-government fighters in Khan Touman and Al Khalidiyah in southern Aleppo. Iran admitted that 13 of its Revolutionary Guards had been killed during those battles in what Reuters described as Tehran’s biggest single-day loss in Syria. The Turkistan Islamic Party, a member of the Nusra-led Jaish Al Fateh, also published pictures of detained Iranian soldiers.
The news about the killing of so many elite Iranian operatives was celebrated not only inside Syria but also in the wider region. When the main rebel fighting forces, especially Ahrar Al Sham and Jaish Al Islam, agreed to participate in the Riyadh conference that would precede a UN Security Council enforcement of a political transition in Syria in December, Jabhat Al Nusra made it clear that it opposed such engagement.
Its leader, Abu Muhammed Al Jolani, speaking to four Syrian journalists in December, said the political process was a ploy to rebrand the regime and that his group would continue to fight. He warned that rebel groups accepting concessions would lose the support of their rank-and-file.
Jabhat Al Nusra’s clear stance paid off. Every time the political process is shown to be insincere or when violations of the cessation of hostilities go unpunished, Jabhat Al Nusra’s view is vindicated. As discussions about the peace talks began last year, I told western officials involved in the process that the group’s strategy was to show to Syrians that the international community was not their friend and that the lack of a peace process would be better than a botched one that weakens the other opposition forces.
In an audio statement in October, Al Jolani adopted a new tone when he attempted to convince Syrians to reject the Vienna peace process, reverting to slogans raised by activists in the early months of the 2011 uprising.
In his conversation with Syrian journalists two months later, he also struggled to explain why his group would seek to spoil the ceasefire in Eastern Ghouta near Damascus after it was revealed that Jaish Al Islam agreed with the Russians on a truce. Jaish Al Islam’s former leader, Zahran Aloush, was then killed by a Russian air strike, and the internationally brokered ceasefires failed to end the regime’s indiscriminate tactics. So Al Jolani seemed prescient.
Today, Jabhat Al Nusra feels confident that it was right to reject or oppose peace talks. The plan to exclude it, rather than make ceasefires contingent on the group’s acceptance, which would pit it against rebels or civilians who support such deals, might have seemed better than legitimising it through political engagement. The plan might also be to slowly disentangle the group from the opposition forces by striking it, punishing those who work with it and engaging those who don’t.
But such a plan might begin to work if the process ends the regime’s terror tactics and leads to genuine change. From the regime’s perspective, keeping Jabhat Al Nusra on the loose means the most effective force on the frontlines, which operates throughout the country, is under no pressure to cease fighting while the regime is expected to end its targeting of the rest of the opposition.
The peace process is flawed however one views it. In the meantime, Jabhat Al Nusra is gaining ground and popularity.
It is presenting itself as the force that would fight until the end without compromising on the core objective of bringing down the regime of Mr Al Assad. It is betting on the world’s inability to secure a fair deal in Syria.
Hassan Hassan is a resident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy and co-author of ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror
On Twitter: @hxhassan
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
More coverage from the Future Forum
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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Fighter profiles
Gabrieli Pessanha (Brazil)
Reigning Abu Dhabi World Pro champion in the 95kg division, virtually unbeatable in her weight class. Known for her pressure game but also dangerous with her back on the mat.
Nathiely de Jesus, 23, (Brazil)
Two-time World Pro champion renowned for her aggressive game. She is tall and most feared by her opponents for both her triangles and arm-bar attacks.
Thamara Ferreira, 24, (Brazil)
Since her brown belt days, Ferreira has been dominating the 70kg, in both the World Pro and the Grand Slams. With a very aggressive game.
Samantha Cook, 32, (Britain)
One of the biggest talents coming out of Europe in recent times. She is known for a highly technical game and bringing her A game to the table as always.
Kendall Reusing, 22, (USA)
Another young gun ready to explode in the big leagues. The Californian resident is a powerhouse in the -95kg division. Her duels with Pessanha have been highlights in the Grand Slams.
Martina Gramenius, 32, (Sweden)
Already a two-time Grand Slam champion in the current season. Gramenius won golds in the 70kg, in both in Moscow and Tokyo, to earn a spot in the inaugural Queen of Mats.
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Leaderboard
63 - Mike Lorenzo-Vera (FRA)
64 - Rory McIlroy (NIR)
66 - Jon Rahm (ESP)
67 - Tom Lewis (ENG), Tommy Fleetwood (ENG)
68 - Rafael Cabrera-Bello (ESP), Marcus Kinhult (SWE)
69 - Justin Rose (ENG), Thomas Detry (BEL), Francesco Molinari (ITA), Danny Willett (ENG), Li Haotong (CHN), Matthias Schwab (AUT)
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The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
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Schedule:
Sept 15: Bangladesh v Sri Lanka (Dubai)
Sept 16: Pakistan v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 17: Sri Lanka v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 18: India v Qualifier (Dubai)
Sept 19: India v Pakistan (Dubai)
Sept 20: Bangladesh v Afghanistan (Abu Dhabi) Super Four
Sept 21: Group A Winner v Group B Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 21: Group B Winner v Group A Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 23: Group A Winner v Group A Runner-up (Dubai)
Sept 23: Group B Winner v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 25: Group A Winner v Group B Winner (Dubai)
Sept 26: Group A Runner-up v Group B Runner-up (Abu Dhabi)
Sept 28: Final (Dubai)
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SPECS
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TYPES%20OF%20ONLINE%20GIG%20WORK
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Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
Dubai Rugby Sevens
November 30, December 1-2
International Vets
Christina Noble Children’s Foundation fixtures
Thursday, November 30:
10.20am, Pitch 3, v 100 World Legends Project
1.20pm, Pitch 4, v Malta Marauders
Friday, December 1:
9am, Pitch 4, v SBA Pirates
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Meydan card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (PA) Group 1 US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,200m
8.50pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (TB) Group 2 $350,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
Company%20Profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Greatest Royal Rumble results
John Cena pinned Triple H in a singles match
Cedric Alexander retained the WWE Cruiserweight title against Kalisto
Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt win the Raw Tag Team titles against Cesaro and Sheamus
Jeff Hardy retained the United States title against Jinder Mahal
Bludgeon Brothers retain the SmackDown Tag Team titles against the Usos
Seth Rollins retains the Intercontinental title against The Miz, Finn Balor and Samoa Joe
AJ Styles remains WWE World Heavyweight champion after he and Shinsuke Nakamura are both counted out
The Undertaker beats Rusev in a casket match
Brock Lesnar retains the WWE Universal title against Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
Braun Strowman won the 50-man Royal Rumble by eliminating Big Cass last
WHAT%20MACRO%20FACTORS%20ARE%20IMPACTING%20META%20TECH%20MARKETS%3F
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The 100 Best Novels in Translation
Boyd Tonkin, Galileo Press
MATCH INFO
World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
The specs
Price: From Dh529,000
Engine: 5-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 520hp
Torque: 625Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.8L/100km
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The%20Specs
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