A view of Riyadh, where the Saudi stock exchange has opened up to direct foreign investment for the first time. Hassan Ammar / AP
A view of Riyadh, where the Saudi stock exchange has opened up to direct foreign investment for the first time. Hassan Ammar / AP

Saudi market’s rising stock



There have been quite a few changes in Saudi Arabia over the past few months. King Salman’s accession to the throne in January was followed by a reshuffle of cabinet positions and a change in the line of succession. The escalation of the situation in Yemen has brought changes in defence policy and there has been closer cooperation between Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries including the UAE. One of the most significant changes, however, is on the economic front and it occurred this week with the opening to foreign investors of the Saudi stock exchange, the Tadawul. This move, which was foreshadowed last year, will have important implications for Saudi Arabia and the region.

The Tadawul is by far the largest bourse in the Middle East, and the seventh largest in the world, so foreign investors have long been keen to have direct access. Yesterday, the market was opened to investors with more than $5 billion (Dh18.37bn) in assets under management, and the initial response was positive.

Foreign observers have praised the strength of the Saudi regulator, the Capital Market Authority, and the generally high level of corporate governance in the kingdom. The participation of the overseas institutions, which will mean the flow of billions of dollars in foreign capital into Riyadh, should ensure greater transparency within public companies. It should also ensure less volatility on the Tadawul, which has endured dramatic rises and declines in recent years. The next step is its classification as an emerging market from its current status as a frontier market. This is expected to happen within the next two years, and analysts say that should lead to many more billions of dollars in investment.

For Saudi Arabia, the move is an essential part of the diversification of its economy, an issue already being addressed in this country. The UAE’s three stock exchanges – and now the Tadawul – which allow varying levels of foreign investment, advertise the determination to ensure strong and balanced growth.

Leap of Faith

Michael J Mazarr

Public Affairs

Dh67
 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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