Predictions about post-Assad Syria are just wishful thinking

What Arabic-language commentators are saying, translated by Abdelhafid Azzouitni.

Overly optimistic scenarios for Syria after the fall of Bashar Al Assad's regime have been appearing across the media, wrote Oraib Al Rantawi in a comment article for the Jordanian daily Addustour.

But the problem is that some of this analysis is just wishful thinking that lacks both depth and knowledge, Al Rantawi said.

Rather, these assessments are part of a psychological warfare campaign directed at the Syrian regime and its allies. Many of the analysts have ignored one of the most likely scenarios – an ISIL takeover of Syria – should their forecasts of regime change come true, the writer continued.

Yes, the Assad regime has been losing ground, especially over the past four months. But just because the regime has lost a few battles does not mean it has lost the war.

Al Rantawi said there are credible reports that the Syrian regime has already moved on to its Plan B: focusing on the centre-coast axis stretching from Damascus to Latakia through Homs, Hama and Qalamoun, because this is where more than half of the Syrian population is concentrated.

The regime’s loss of a few areas will take the war to a new level without putting an end to it, according to the writer.

He also noted that the regime’s “sudden collapse” is another scenario being envisioned in the media, despite many facts to the contrary. These include the fact that most of those fighting alongside the regime forces believe it is a fight to the death and that they have limited options.

The writer continued that the only organised forces capable of filling the void if the regime fell were extremists of the ilk of ISIL and Al Qaeda. If the regime fell, there would be a dangerous race between extremists to take over the capital and rule the country.

This scenario frightens not only Russia, Iran and Hizbollah, but the United States and the West at large, Al Rantawi said.

The anti-Assad Arab alliance, however, does not seem to be worried about who is going to rule Syria after Mr Al Assad. What matters most to them is that he is gone and Iran’s wings are clipped.

It is this concern that took the US secretary of state, John Kerry, to the Black Sea resort of Sochi to hold talks with Russian officials, and what prompted Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov to speak of a “rapprochement” between the US and Russia over Syria, without giving any specifics.

The writer said that a “ferocious race” is likely to take place in coming days between parties calling for an escalation of the war and those championing diplomatic initiatives, especially if a nuclear agreement with Iran is reached.

Writing in the Saudi-owned daily Asharq Al Awsat, Tariq Al Humaid noted that the US – via the Twitter account of its embassy in Syria – had accused the regime of launching air strikes in support of ISIL's advance on Aleppo.

At the same time, Iran said it would stand by “the government and nation of Syria until the end”.

The American statement also came as the Iraqi prime minister, Haider Al Abadi, complained about a lack of international support for his country in the fight against ISIL, and noted that the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq had not stopped, the writer observed.

Al Humaid said that Mr Al Assad’s support for ISIL should not come as a surprise. The terrorist group’s leaders were released from Mr Al Assad’s jails, as were other ISIL fighters from Iraqi prisons under the former prime minister, Nouri Al Maliki.

Al Humaid said that the best way to deal with ISIL was not just by mounting air strikes. A comprehensive political and military plan was needed for both Syria and Iraq.

International pressure must be exerted on the Al Abadi government to achieve a national reconciliation that includes all Iraqis and arms the Sunni tribes so they can fight ISIL.

At the same time, Al Humaid said, the international community must support the Syrian opposition, politically and militarily, in its bid to overthrow Mr Al Assad and speed up the transfer of power.

Translated by Abdelhafid Azzouitni