Nigerian ceasefire would be welcome

With details sketchy at best, scepticism persists over reports of a peace deal with Boko Haram

A screengrab taken in May from a video produced by Boko Haram showing abducted Nigerian girls. AFP

Reports that the Nigerian government and the Islamist militant group Boko Haram have brokered a ceasefire that may lead to the release of 219 kidnapped girls and women have been met with caution and some scepticism. Little detail was available yesterday, but Nigeria's chief of defence, Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh, said he had ordered his troops to stop firing on the insurgents in line with the agreement. If this is a genuine breakthrough, it will be welcomed in the west African country and further afield.

Boko Haram captured global attention in April when it kidnapped 276 girls and young women in the remote town of Chibok. While some escaped, 219 are still missing, and they have been the subject of a huge global social-media campaign with the hashtag BringBackOurGirls. The insurgent group is believed to have abducted dozens of other children over the past five years and, according to a recent United Nations report, to have killed about 13,000 civilians. The families of the kidnapped girls will, no doubt, pin their hopes on a Reuters report quoting an anonymous “senior source at the presidency” saying they could be freed by Tuesday.

There has been some suspicion that the military statement was politically motivated to coincide with an imminent announcement by president Goodluck Jonathan of his candidacy in February’s presidential election. The BBC noted yesterday that the Nigerian military had previously made announcements that were at odds with the situation on the ground. Significantly, Boko Haram – which usually communicates via videos from its leader Abubakar Shekau – had made no comment by last night.

Reports of a ceasefire could also be seen as a distraction from the country’s economic and social challenges. Although it is Africa’s largest oil producer, many people live in poverty and corruption is a persistent problem. Clearly, there is much for Mr Jonathan and his would-be successors to do.

Even if this ceasefire is real and the girls are released, it remains unclear what would happen next. Government sources have said there are no plans to cede territory to Boko Haram, but it seems unlikely that the group would down its arms without seeking some concessions.