In a few days, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will speak before a joint session of the US Congress. He will use the occasion to blast Iran and issue dire warnings about the current US-led negotiations designed to limit Iran’s nuclear programme.
Having successfully used his two previous appearances before Congress to announce his intention to scuttle the Oslo peace process (1996) and to sabotage Barack Obama’s plan to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace talks (2011), Mr Netanyahu apparently hopes to use this address to stiffen the resolve of those in Congress who are opposed to the current negotiations with Iran.
That this speech comes a scant two weeks before Israelis go to the polls is, for Mr Netanyahu, the “icing on the cake” since it will display for voters back home his supreme mastery of America. It will also, he hopes, divert attention from his recent financial scandals, and his failure to establish a lasting peace or to provide for the well-being of his people.
What the prime minister did not expect was the firestorm his appearance would produce. By having his ambassador to Washington, a former Republican Party operative, conspire with the speaker of the House to arrange this speech, the Israeli leader displayed remarkable short-sighted arrogance. But then, this is one of the drawbacks of cockiness.
Since the speech was announced, negative reaction has been growing. The White House has charged that the prime minister’s behaviour is “destructive of the fabric of the [US-Israeli] relationship”. Secretary of state John Kerry chided his critique of the Iran negotiations as uninformed. And, as of Friday, 36 members of Congress had announced their plan to boycott the speech. Equally significant has been the reaction in Israel, where a former head of Mossad said that the speech was “pointless and counterproductive”.
There are those who suggest that this is but “a tempest in a teapot” that will settle down once the elections are over. I don’t think so. Mr Netanyahu may still be reelected, although polls indicate that he will have to scramble to cobble together the 60-plus Knesset members he will need to form a government.
Since the announcement of his speech, his slight lead over his “centre-left” opponents in the Zionist Union has evaporated. The two parties now appear to be running dead even – with each garnering 23 or 24 seats in the next Knesset. Given the fragmentation of Israel’s right-wing parties, Mr Netanyahu may be able to forge a coalition, but it will be a grouping of ego-driven hardliners who will only serve to exacerbate tensions with the US.
As of now, it appears that even if the Zionist Union edges out Mr Netanyahu’s party, they will have no chance of forming a cohesive coalition that will be able to effectively govern and advance peace. This is so for two reasons. One, the left is too weak. While the positions of the Zionist Union are closely aligned to those espoused by Washington, it is unlikely that they will be able to find enough like-minded Knesset members to establish a ruling majority. Because they will need to include rightist groupings to reach the 60-plus threshold, the government they formed would be hamstrung from the start.
Additionally, what will probably emerge as the third or fourth largest bloc in the Knesset is the Arab Union. Since they are expected to win between 12 to 15 seats, it will be impossible for the “centre-left” to amass 60-plus seats without the agreement of the Arab bloc.
However, it is unlikely that the Arab group will be included in any government formation. This will serve to create a dysfunctional situation in which the government can only be sustained by the acquiescence of the Arab bloc. But this will, in turn, inhibit such a government from taking any dramatic steps towards peace lest it be attacked by the right for acting without the support of the “Jewish majority”. The result will be paralysis. This will be Mr Netanyahu’s legacy: a deeply divided Israel.
A further effect of Mr Netanyahu’s behaviour will be seen in the US. Israelis console themselves that polls continue to show that a majority of Americans support their state. What they ignore is that Americans are increasingly frustrated with and deeply divided over Israeli policies. Majorities oppose settlements and Israel’s actions that conflict with the US policy.
It may very well be that when Mr Netanyahu is finished with his big Washington adventure, many officials there will insist that the US-Israel bonds are “unbreakable”. And many in Congress will still jump, when asked, to do Israel’s bidding. But that’s not the whole story, since he will leave in his wake a fractured Israel and a deeply divided America. Such will be the master manipulator’s legacy.
James Zogby is the president of the Arab American Institute
On Twitter: @aaiusa