The coalition’s control of the key Yemeni port city of Mukalla faced a new challenge this week, when ISIL carried out a series of attacks on military bases around the city, killing 10 soldiers. The city, only recently liberated from Al Qaeda by the Yemeni army and the Saudi-led coalition, of which the UAE is a part, is in an exposed position, situated along Yemen’s southern coast, between Aden and Oman. If ISIL really did carry out the attack, it probably did so with help from Al Qaeda elements that are still active in the wider region around Mukalla.
This latest attack highlights the complexity of a conflict such as Yemen. It also serves to emphasise why the war is so important. Instability anywhere on the peninsula is a threat to the whole region, because even terrorist groups who oppose each other elsewhere (Al Qaeda and ISIL are enemies in Syria) can find themselves co-operating to sow division in other theatres.
Yet neither Al Qaeda nor ISIL are the prime instigators of the current instability in Yemen. The transition after the unseating of the previous president Ali Abdullah Saleh came about because of the Houthi rebels and their war (in tandem with Mr Saleh’s supporters) against the legitimate government in Sanaa.
So that order be restored, the Saudi-led coalition have pursued what might be categorised as a “pen and sword” approach. On the one hand, there is diplomacy and diplomatic language: the peace talks in Kuwait are continuing. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Adel Al Jubeir also expressed some optimism. He also took the unusual step of highlighting, via his Twitter feed, that the Houthis, despite their rebellion, are “part of the social fabric of Yemen”. This is the conciliatory, diplomatic part of the mission, sending a clear signal that if the Houthis wish for peace, the Yemeni government and their Arab allies are ready to extend their hands, too.
At the same time, a second message is being sent. Earlier in the week, a Saudi spokesman warned that if peace talks fail, the coalition would liberate Sanaa by force. The message was meant to remove any ambiguity among the Houthis that the coalition is unwilling to see the fight through. The Yemeni government must be restored to its rightful place.
The easiest way to do this is in Kuwait, via the peace talks. But if the Houthis continue to be recalcitrant, there is another path, and it will lead through Sanaa.