Mainstream politicians, be warned

Marine Le Pen is unlikely to be president of France, but the establishment is on notice

Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Front and France's presidential candidate, speaks to supporters after result projections for the first round of the French presidential election. Marlene AShow more

The outsiders have taken the first round of French presidential elections. In a closely watched contest that could decide the fate of the European Union, political novice Emmanuel Macron will face far-right politician Marine Le Pen in a presidential run-off vote next month. It was a vote against the system as no major party made it to the run-off stage for the first time in contemporary French history.

Given anti-establishment currents engulfing the world’s democracies, the result is hardly surprising. In a period of unexpected political surprises from the Brexit referendum to the election of Donald Trump, analysts are cautiously optimistic that France will reject the far-right extremism of Ms Le Pen’s National Front party.

The question that will be on the minds of many observers, however, is whether the majority of French voters believe they have sufficiently voted “against the system” in the first round of voting or if they will continue to drift towards the extreme views of Ms Le Pen.

Following in the footsteps of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine Le Pen campaigned on a populist platform fuelled by equal parts Islamophobic and nationalist sentiment. Given her anti-European Union positions, a Le Pen victory puts the future of the European project as a whole into question.

While Mr Macron, a centrist, is the favourite to win in May, nothing is certain. For Mr Macron to succeed he will need to cobble together votes from the left, right and centre of the French political spectrum. In essence, he will need to form a coalition of French voters who are united in their rejection of the far-right positions of his opponent.

The establishment centre-left and centre-right parties –the traditional centres of power in French politics – have already circled the wagons around Mr Macron. For her part, Ms Le Pen will need to consider changing her strategy to attract more centrist voters. If she continues to hammer on her major talking points – anti-immigrant rhetoric and anti-globalisation positions – she will not be able to win the centre. Regardless of the result, the French election is additional proof that voters around the world’s democracies are fed up with mainstream establishment parties. The way that political parties operate in the post-Cold War era is changing before our eyes. If politicians fail to take heed of the changes, they will soon find themselves out of a job.