Loss of Dabiq cuts at the heart of ISIL

The fall of emblematic Syrian town ahead of the battle for Mosul shows ISIL’s weaknesses

Fighters from the Free Syrian Army battle ISIL on the outskirts of the northern Syrian town of Dabiq.Nazeer al Khatib / AFP

Compared to the battle for Mosul, the capture of Dabiq from ISIL control this week might seem like a relatively minor affair. However that interpretation fails to appreciate the importance of this northern Syrian town to the group because in Islamic eschatology, Dabiq is one of two potential sites of an epic battle between invading Christians and the defending Muslims, with the subsequent Muslim victory heralding the beginning of the end of times. Dabiq is so emblematic for ISIL that it provided the name for its English-language magazine, one of its prime propaganda and recruiting tools.

On one level, this just proves that ISIL is as incompetent at Islamic scholarship as it is in its twisted misinterpretation of religion to justify its barbarism and its self-proclaimed caliphate. But on another level, it reflects that the group has lost nearly half of the territory it controlled at its peak. Dabiq fell to Syrian rebels backed by Turkey and the United States-led coalition relatively quickly, despite reports of 1,200 ISIL fighters – equal to roughly one-third of the town’s pre-war population – having been brought in to defend it.

While the recent trajectory of the military response to ISIL has been solely one-way, with Fallujah and Tikrit being retaken by Iraqi-led forces with international assistance, most expect the group to mutate to match its new situation. As many observers have noted, ISIL is as much an ideology as it is a military force, so victory requires vanquishing its twisted philosophy – which particularly appeals to a generation of disaffected youth, including many in the West – as its soldiers on the battlefield.

Some reports suggest these two are more interconnected than previously thought. Researchers at West Point recently found that ISIL’s propaganda operations, which have lured more than 30,000 foreign fighters to Syria and Iraq, diminished markedly as it came under military pressure. Part of this is thought to be because the group has lost the allure of success it had when it was advancing.

Even with recent military gains against ISIL, nobody ought to be under any illusion that the group will disappear soon, but at least headway is being made in the long and slow process of achieving that. There is still much to be done, particularly in promoting the true message of Islam, but we are heading in the right direction.