Lebanon braces for worst as tension and turmoil continue in the region

What the Arabic-language media has to say about the future of Lebanon

Over the past three years, Lebanon has absorbed nearly two million Syrian refugees, which has affected the country’s socioeconomic situation.

Recent events in the city of Ersal, as well as the beheading of two Lebanese soldiers by ISIL, are reflections of social and sectarian tensions. They also marked the beginning of the crisis spilling over to the neighbouring areas.

“Much water has flowed under the bridge and two international conferences to support Lebanon have been held – one in Paris and the other in Rome – with no major recommendations on the issue of displaced Syrians,” wrote Scarlett Haddad in the Beirut-based French-language daily L’Orient Le Jour.

“In one year, the situation has deteriorated as the number of refugees has crossed the 1.5 million mark. Among these people who dispersed across the Lebanese territory are extremists from Jabhat Al Nusra and ISIL.

“Ever since the attack against the Lebanese army in Ersal by jihadists, the situation has become even more complex, because more and more Lebanese now regard the presence of Syrians in their territory as a social, economic and military burden.

“What began more than three years ago as a simple humanitarian crisis has turned into a complex problem for the country and its people, who perceive the presence of Syrians as a threat.”

It is against the backdrop of this scenario that a support meeting will be held in New York. It’s a disaster that Lebanon cannot afford to stand and watch, she concluded.

In the Sharjah-based daily Al Khaleej, Nasser Zeidan explained that “the diversity of the Lebanese army reflects the diversity of the country. It is the most coherent institution in Lebanon with an impressive combat history. It survived many tests over the past, especially during its fight against terrorists in Nahr Al Bared in the north in 2010”.

As in Syria and Iraq, the emergence of terrorism in Lebanon would bring together all security agencies and political players in the region, he noted.

“While Arab and international interests in Lebanon cannot be ignored, the chaos that has befallen the country would not end as easily as some would expect. On the contrary, it could turn into a regional and even an international conflict” he explained.

Writing in the pan-Arab newspaper Al Hayat, Hazem Saghieh pointed out that “air strikes do no put an end to war, they perpetuate and expand it. As the protracted war in Syria and Iraq affects various countries, there is no guarantee that Lebanon will remain secure. In fact, the country is already having to endure many repercussions.

“Iran, Hizbollah and Bashar Al Assad will see that prolonging such a war [against ISIL] works in their favour.”

He explained that such a situation is exacerbated by divisions that have existed since 2005 and that “the country is bogged down by the weight of hardships. There is no unanimity at all.

“This scenario has created the prospects of ‘Islamic emirates’ emerging here and there and the likelihood that the ‘united’ army shall not survive the growing social rift. It would be a miracle if these events do not happen,” concluded Saghieh.

Translated by Carla Mirza