Honest answers

Pollsters may lose the vote of many people by failing to gauge the UK electorate’s mood

Every pollster in the UK declared that Thursday’s election would be neck and neck, leaving no party with a majority. Jason Alden / Bloomberg News

Political polling has never been an exact science. From perceived political bias in the wording of questions to even the number of questions asked, surveys often fail to predict the future. While none of this is new, the inability of UK pollsters to get an accurate handle on the mood – and the voting intentions – of the electorate was breathtaking.

Every pollster in the country declared that Thursday’s election would be neck and neck, leaving no party with a majority. When the polling booths closed and exit polls were broadcast, the Conservatives ended up with a narrow majority. How could this happen? Perhaps it had more to do with those being questioned than those asking the questions. Maybe there was an honesty problem.

Look at summer reading lists. People often reveal lofty reading goals, but these don’t correspond to the thrillers, chick lit and mysteries you see poolside. The way it lies, it seems but a short leap from the polling booth to the beach.