The Gulf between Arab states and Iran might stretch fewer than 60 kilometres at its narrowest point but the differences between the two shores are stark. On one side sit the nations of the GCC, forces of stability, peace, prosperity and co-operation. On the other lies Iran, the region's chief destabiliser, now threatening the Middle East's vital shipping lanes. Last week's emergency Makkah summit, held to reaffirm Arab solidarity, proved both significant and fruitful. As Saudi Arabia's King Salman said: "Recent criminal acts require that all of us work seriously to preserve the security of GCC countries."
War would serve no one’s interests and all sides should urge caution at this tense moment. But only a firm co-ordinated response from the GCC can tackle the malevolence of Tehran, which seeks above all to divide the Arab world. In both reiterating GCC unity and strongly calling out Iran’s malfeasance, the Makkah summit sent a robust message to Tehran.
Tensions are running high as stringent US sanctions take their toll on Iran, one year after US President Donald Trump pulled out of the flawed 2015 nuclear deal, the proceeds of which were ploughed into Tehran's strategy of regional interference – from Yemen and Syria to Lebanon and Iraq – and ballistic missile programme. With their backs against the wall, Iranian leaders are now lashing out, according to the US. Last month four tankers were sabotaged off the coast of the UAE, shortly before drones struck Saudi oil facilities. Both US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton have placed the blame firmly at Tehran's door. Meanwhile the US envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, threatened military action against Tehran should US assets in the region come under attack.
With rising tensions making this a moment of significant volatility, GCC unity is critical to stability. Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, stressed the importance of building an “efficient, united Arab stance” to overcome these challenges. Observers of the Makkah summit will have seen precisely that.
It is clear from the statements that emerged from the summit that the GCC stands united following the attacks and that the nations of the region are determined to protect international shipping lanes, through which at least one-third of the world’s oil passes. But of equal importance is the acknowledgement from Arab states that war is not desirable. Clearly the countries of the Gulf will respond firmly if they come under attack. But as Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir said: “A war would be damaging to everyone in the region and we want to avoid it at all costs.” Meddling from Tehran is no match for a strong, cohesive region and regime leaders would be wise to serve themselves and the region best by paying heed to this warning.
