In the battle of wills between US President Donald Trump and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, no clear winner has emerged. However, there is a clear loser: the country’s long-suffering civilian population.
As Yemenis awoke yesterday to news that Mr Trump’s large-scale military strikes against the militants had claimed at least 24 lives, they would be right to reflect on the disastrous chain of events and policy decisions that have led to one of the world’s most impoverished countries being again bombarded by a superpower.
The Houthis, who control a large part of the country – including Sanaa, the capital – have consistently put their own people in harm’s way by first over-turning the legitimate government and then persisting with prioritising Iran-guided policies even as proxies elsewhere falter and the geopolitical picture in the Middle East rapidly changes. Far from using the imperfect ceasefire in Gaza as an opportunity to de-escalate, the Houthis continued to menace international shipping in the Red Sea. Given that Mr Trump’s administration put the Houthis on notice by redesignating them as a terrorist organisation on March 4, threatening to keep up attacks in the strategic waterway was almost certainly going to draw a forceful response.
For a country in such dire straits as Yemen, strikes like these pose a real risk of exacerbating a profound humanitarian crisis born out of a decade of conflict. Israeli bombardments in response to Houthi drone attacks last year damaged vital infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula’s poorest country, such as the port facilities in Hodeidah – a critical entry point for aid supplies to feed a malnourished population.
The weekend’s bombardments also pose worrying implications for broader regional stability. The Houthis’ political bureau has said the rebels were “fully prepared to respond to escalation with escalation”. In addition to devastation inside the country at the hands of the Houthis, Yemen’s neighbours have been attacked by the militants before. Oil facilities in Saudi Arabia have been repeatedly targeted by Houthi drones and three people lost their lives in Abu Dhabi when the rebels attacked the UAE capital in January 2022. The risk of conflict again spilling beyond Yemen’s borders is real.
The Houthis remain unpredictable and intransigent. Given this, and the fact that previous air strikes have not deterred them from their disruptive attacks, it is worth considering better ways for all sides to move forward. The Houthis would be better served by recognising the region’s changed circumstances and working towards a political solution in the country. That means engaging with the UN-linked peace process to resolve Yemen’s long-running conflict. Such an approach also means the US and others rethinking the wisdom of escalatory air strikes or using such bombardments as a way of sending diplomatic messages to Iran.
There is a danger in assuming that disruptive diplomacy backed up by force, although it may produce movement elsewhere, will have a similar breakthrough effect in Yemen. For a malnourished population living under the Houthis’ rule, and the wider Yemeni population, there is too much at stake. Politics – and cooler heads – must prevail.
