In an example of life imitating art, Nasa scientists this week raised the probability of a recently identified asteroid hitting the Earth in the next seven years to about one in 32. Coverage of this “city killer” threat to humanity is reminiscent of the 2021 satirical Hollywood film Don’t Look Up, in which a team of desperate scientists try – and fail – to warn the world’s leaders that an extinction-level event is six months away.
The possibility – however remote – that an asteroid between 40 to 90 metres wide could strike the planet and cause either an enormous tsunami or leave a crater 10 to 20 kilometres wide should be enough to focus attention on improving our space technology. Speaking to The National this week, Khadijah Ahmed, operations manager at the Dubai Astronomy Group said researchers would continue to refine Asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit. “We could stop an asteroid like 2024 YR4 if we act early,” she added “but we need better tracking, more advanced tech and faster decision-making to be fully prepared.”
Full preparation requires not just a deference to scientific and technical expertise, but global co-operation, too. Thankfully, even amid growing political division on our planet, many national governments are heavily invested in their space programmes and take advice from their experts seriously.
The UAE is one such country. Not only has it successfully put two citizens into space, but it has developed and launched exploration devices such as the Hope probe, which is currently sending back data about Mars’s atmosphere, climate and potential habitability. The Emirates also works closely with other space agencies, such as Nasa, on research and development that will inform humanity’s next lunar missions. The country is in partnership with Nasa on its plans to build a permanent Moon-orbiting space station called Gateway.
The UAE also has its own programme for exploring asteroids. The MBR Explorer, a 2,300kg craft being developed as part of the Emirates Mission to the Asteroid Belt, is nearing its critical design review phase. It will eventually embark on a five-billion-kilometre journey to perform flybys of six asteroids and then deploy a lander that will touchdown on the seventh. Given this week’s news about a rogue asteroid that may come too close for comfort, the more we can learn about these objects now, the better.
Our world faces many acute problems such as the climate emergency, ongoing conflicts, future pandemics and economic uncertainty. It can be a hard choice for countries to devote significant amounts of their national budget and resources to space projects that can appear remote to people’s daily struggles. However, well-funded and innovative space programmes not only offer technical solutions to current problems on Earth, they can prepare the next generation of scientists, engineers and mathematicians for work at the highest level.
Such expertise will be vital in the future – incoming asteroid or not. Scientists say 2024 YR4 is mainly rock – a weaker material than a metal-rich object. This means there is a good chance of it burning up in our atmosphere if it does indeed cross our path in 2032. Fifty years ago, we may not have been able to even detect such an asteroid; now we can conceivably discuss using laser or ion beams to deflect the threat, should it arise. This shows how the continuing work to revisit the Moon, learn what we can from Mars and refine space flight are not expensive luxuries or experiments, they are key to securing humanity’s long-term future.
