The diplomatic failure to halt almost three years of war in Ukraine has come at a terrible human cost. The total number of military deaths is thought to be in the hundreds of thousands, civilian deaths are unfortunately uncounted, millions continue to be displaced and entire towns have been reduced to rubble. However, despite such obvious suffering, efforts to end Europe’s biggest war in 80 years have so far come to nought.
Direct talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in the conflict’s initial stages eventually broke down, leading to a long period of stalemate during which the fighting ground on. This deadly inertia appears to have been shattered by US President Donald Trump’s recent decision to break with convention and engage directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, alarming Kyiv and upsetting European allies in the process.
Everyone’s first concern should be for the thousands of civilians in Ukraine who have lost loved ones, homes and livelihoods. Their painful predicament, coupled with the dangerous international divisions that the war has fuelled, makes it important to welcome efforts to restore this lost momentum and get people talking again. Senior US officials – including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Michael Waltz and White House envoy Steve Witkoff – arrived in Riyadh on Monday for exploratory discussions on ending the war.
Gulf diplomacy has played a prominent role throughout the conflict. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have painstakingly built and maintained trust with the Russian and Ukrainian leaderships. Their careful mediation efforts have led to several successful prisoner exchanges and proved that balanced, responsible statecraft can lead to better outcomes for all.
It is still, however, important to remember that any sustainable peace settlement will require Ukrainian assent. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy oversaw the signing of a major trade agreement with the UAE while on an official visit to Abu Dhabi on Monday. Future prosperity for Ukraine requires such deals to help it once the war is over. Mr Zelenskyy has said his country was not invited to the Saudi Arabia talks and will not sign any deal that comes without Ukrainian involvement.
Consequently, a deal that is imposed from outside stands little chance of success in the long term. As several countries in the Arab world can attest, a process that includes all parties to a conflict stands the best chance of securing a lasting peace.
Whatever the outcome of this week’s meetings in Saudi Arabia, Gulf diplomacy will continue to be an important and indispensable resource, not just for trying to bring the ruinous conflict in Ukraine to an end but in helping to halt the loss of life closer to home in Palestine. Leveraging years of economic and security partnerships with important overseas allies is a powerful way to drive home the message that such deadly armed conflicts are political and diplomatic failures that produce no winners.
